The first-quarter results for Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AMP) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$4.1b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$9.46 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 20%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Ameriprise Financial's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$17.2b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 4.5% to US$32.83. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$16.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$32.40 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$451, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ameriprise Financial at US$500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$371. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ameriprise Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Ameriprise Financial'shistorical trends, as the 5.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that Ameriprise Financial is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$451, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ameriprise Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ameriprise Financial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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