The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released an active equity fund analysis for the first quarter of '24, indicating that in terms of asset allocation, there has been a correction in stock positions, and the Hong Kong stock ratio has risen. As of 2024Q1, the stock position of active equity funds was 87.6%, down 0.5ppt from month to month. Of these, 55.5% of active equity funds dropped month-on-month; judging from Hong Kong stock investment, the number of active equity funds holding heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks continued to expand, and the Hong Kong stock allocation ratio also increased. In terms of industry allocation, on the A-share side, the automotive, telecommunications and home appliance industries were added in 2024Q1, and holdings in the pharmaceutical, electronics and computer industries were reduced, and industry concentration declined again; on the Hong Kong stock side, heavy holdings were concentrated in the information technology industry, energy industry, non-essential consumption and healthcare industries, with the energy industry and raw materials industry increasing significantly in 2024Q1.

The main views of CICC are as follows:

Market Overview

Market sentiment is weak, and issuance continues to be low. The number of new common stock and partial stock hybrid funds issued in 2024Q1 was 6 and 67, with issuance shares of 1.15 billion shares and 18.68 billion shares respectively; overall, compared with the small peak of year-end issuance in preparation for “spring farming,” the number and scale of equity products issued since the beginning of the year declined, and market sentiment was still sluggish; benefiting from policy support and strong performance in corresponding styles, the total number of dividend-related new products raised 1.73 billion yuan.

The number of stocks has been rising steadily, and the scale continues to shrink. As of 2024Q1, the number of active equity fund products reached 4,060, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 7.0 ppt and 1.3ppt respectively; while the overall scale continued to shrink, reaching 3.51 trillion yuan as of 2024Q1, the year-on-year decline was as high as 26.2ppt, while the month-on-month decline slowed slightly compared to 2023Q4 to 6.7ppt.

From the perspective of fund products, most large-scale products have seen capital outflows, and funds that have bucked the trend have generally performed well; from the perspective of fund managers, the management scale of leading fund managers has shrunk, representing fragmentation in product performance, and the 10 billion list continues to shrink; from the perspective of fund companies, the management scale of leading institutions has narrowed, rankings have remained relatively stable, and concentration has increased slightly.

Performance review

By investment type, the median income of 2024Q1 common stock, partial share hybrid and flexible allocation funds was -3.1%, -3.0% and -2.8%, respectively, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and China Securities 500 indices during the same period; looking at investment methods, 2024Q1 subjectively regained an advantage, and some dividend-related quantitative active equity funds also performed well; by subject category, thanks to the main market line of high dividends and resource products, cyclical theme funds showed outstanding performance, and along with the continuous adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector, the number of corresponding fund themes also declined; Distinguish styles In terms of categories, the advantages of large-cap value style funds are prominent, and they are significantly superior to other style categories.

Position analysis

Shareholding characteristics: Growth preferences are picking up, and shareholding concentration is rising for the first time. The market value of active equity fund heavy holdings continued to shift in 2024Q1, and growth style preferences rebounded; the number of heavy holdings declined, while the concentration of holdings changed the volatile downward trend since the group disintegrated, and increased slightly for the first time.

Details of heavy positions: Earnings from leading holdings are divided, with varying increases and decreases. In terms of A-shares, among the stocks with the highest market value holdings, Ningde Times (300750.SZ) achieved a significant increase in holdings, while Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) and Lixun Precision (002475.SZ) experienced significant holdings reduction. The latter was mostly due to the evaporation of the stock's own market value, and the active reduction ratio was relatively limited. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, CNOOC (00883) and Meituan-W (03690) gained significant gains in shares, but the former increase was mainly due to the stock's own increase, while the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388), Kingdee International (00268), and Tencent Holdings (00700) received a slight reduction in allocations.

Fund manager market outlook

Along with the strong implementation of steady growth policies and signs of a steady recovery in macroeconomic data, the economy is expected to continue the volatile recovery trend. At the same time, combined with the current relatively low valuation level, A-share equity assets have medium- to long-term allocation value; along with the disclosure of performance, more attention will be paid to corporate profit realization and marginal improvement in business climate. Regarding future concerns and direction, most fund managers are still optimistic about high-dividend sectors with policy support, stable operations, and abundant cash. At the same time, they are also concerned about the layout opportunities of the semiconductor and electronics sectors represented by the recovery of the industrial cycle and the expected recovery in the economy.

Risk warning

All analysis in the report is based on public data and information, and does not constitute any investment advice; the fund's past performance does not represent future expectations.