Jinwu Financial News | Guoxin Securities said that according to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in March 2024, civil aviation passenger turnover recorded a 5.9% growth rate compared to the same period in 2019. Based on the following reasons, the bank believes that airline profitability is expected to increase across the board in 2024:1. Continued economic improvement is expected to drive a steady increase in overall air travel demand; 2. Continued recovery of international routes will help the continued release of overseas travel demand; 3. The civil aviation industry's fleet growth rate is expected to remain low, supply and demand will gradually become more balanced, and passenger occupancy rates are expected to continue to rise.
According to the bank, since the end of 2023, the main types of Hong Kong Airlines have continued to decline, and the stock price is currently in a very low position. The bank believes that the overall operation of the civil aviation industry has returned to a normal growth path, and that the supply and demand status of the industry is expected to gradually move towards a tight balance in 2024, and the profitability of airlines is expected to increase across the board. The current low level of the secondary market is a good layout opportunity. Maintain an industry rating that outperforms the market. In terms of specific products, it is recommended to focus on Air China (00753, unrated), which has a relatively large increase in capacity and high performance flexibility, and China Southern Airlines (01055, unrated), which has the largest and most efficient business scale.