Jinwu Financial News | According to the Guangfa Securities Research Report, Haidilao (06862) has been deeply involved in the hot pot industry for 30 years and has the highest market share in the hot pot industry. According to the company's financial reports, the company had 1,374 Haidilao restaurants by the end of the year, and the company served nearly 400 million customers in '23. After rapid expansion, the company faced difficulties such as store diversion and increased management difficulties. As a result, the turnover rate and single-store profit declined. As a result, the regional management system was restarted in '21, and the “Woodpecker Plan” was announced to close or shut down some stores, slow down the progress of store expansion, and continue to polish the store and management system. Since then, store operations have gradually picked up. According to the company's financial report, the turnover rate reached 3.8 times, an increase of 0.8 times.
The bank believes that an excellent management model is a prerequisite for the company's ultimate service and continuous innovation. Piece wage plus a clear promotion path fully stimulates growth vitality, fully authorized at the store level, meets consumer needs through bottom-up innovation, and only controls systemic risks at the headquarters level. Based on high-quality management, the company continues to strengthen extreme services, seize opportunities in segmented scenarios, and continuously improve customer acquisition capabilities. In addition, the company's single-store model is optimized, focusing on medium- to long-term store expansion space and second curve growth. After this round of adjustments, the efficiency of the company's stores has improved markedly, and profit margins have greater upward elasticity. In terms of store expansion space, Haidilao still has plenty of room to expand stores in mainland China in the medium to long term. In addition, the company is gradually testing the waters for new store types, new themes, new scenarios, new categories, etc., which is expected to cultivate new performance growth points.
The bank expects the company to achieve net profit of 51.2 billion yuan, 56.7 billion yuan and 6.25 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, up 13.7%, 10.8%, and 10.2%, respectively. Considering Haidilao's leading position, store quality and operating efficiency have improved significantly after the reform. In the future, there is still room to expand stores while guaranteeing brand potential. Referring to comparable companies, 20 times PE was given in 24 years, with a corresponding reasonable value of HK$19.88 per share. For the first time, coverage was given, giving it a “buy” rating.