Jinwu Financial News | According to the GF Securities Research Report, Kingdee International (00268) product renewal rates for large and medium-sized enterprises have certain seasonal characteristics, while renewal rates for small and micro enterprise products are relatively stable throughout the year. According to the 23-year data, the renewal rates for the full year of Sky Starry Sky and Starry Sky have been fixed to a certain extent compared to 23Q1, so keep an eye on the changes over the next 24 years.
According to the bank, 24Q1 ARR was about 2.98 billion yuan (RMB, same below), an increase of about 28% over the previous year, and the growth rate was slightly lower. On the one hand, it was affected by the high base of 23Q1, and on the other hand, it was also affected by the procurement pace of large and medium-sized enterprises. If ARR should have a net year-on-year increase of about 860 million yuan (or about 30%) in 24, that is, judging from the month-on-month net growth dimension, each quarter will require an average net increase of about 215 million yuan month-on-month. The company's net month-on-month increase in 24Q1 was about 120 million yuan, then the average net increase for the next three quarters was about 247 million yuan month-on-month, which is under certain pressure.
The bank expects its main business revenue of 6.595 billion yuan, 7.671 billion yuan, and 9.030 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. If PS valuation is used, refer to the comparable company valuation. The bank gave the company a 24-year 8XPS valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of about HK$16.19 per share. There is a big difference in the market environment between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. After comprehensive consideration, the bank selected the average value of the DCF valuation method and the PS valuation method as a reasonable value, that is, about HK$15.14 per share, maintaining a “buy” rating.