The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the combination of factors such as continued widening oil and gas price differential+lower freight rates+gradual diversification of gas vehicle product types drove a rapid increase in gas vehicle cost performance and customer acceptance; at the same time, domestic natural gas supply is abundant, gas station construction is accelerated in various regions, and supply/demand/policy is catalyzed in multiple dimensions, and the penetration rate of heavy gas trucks is expected to increase from 2024 to 2025. Heavy truck exports have shown strong resilience, sales have broken through steady growth, and the CIS, Middle East/Africa/Southeast Asia, etc., the cost performance advantages of independent heavy trucks are prominent, and the overseas market share continues to rise. Furthermore, the trade-in policy is worth looking forward to. Currently, the number of domestic four-tier heavy trucks and below is still high. The policy's strength is expected to stimulate incremental demand and is optimistic.
Dongwu Securities estimates that the domestic heavy truck industry's wholesale sales volume from 2024 to 2025 will be 107/1.25 million vehicles, respectively, +17.3%/+17.1% year-on-year. Investment in the heavy truck sector focuses on strong α (natural gas heavy trucks benefit) + performance to implement high-certainty varieties to deploy Weichai Power (023380.SZ+ Sinotruk (03808) + FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ) /Foton Motor (600166.SH).
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Total industry volume: Production batches rose significantly month-on-month during the peak heavy truck sales season in March. Companies increased inventory slightly, and channels increased significantly:
1) Production: The overall monthly output of the heavy truck industry in March was 116,500 units, -1.7%/+96.4% year-on-month; 2) Wholesale: Domestic heavy truck wholesale volume in March was 115,800 units, +0.3%/+93.6% year-on-month; 3) Shanghai Insurance: Heavy truck terminal sales volume in March was 751,000 units, -1.7%/+183.7% year-on-month; Looking at the zero performance of comprehensive production batches, the traditional peak sales season for heavy trucks in March drove a significant year-on-month increase. 4) Exports: In March, the heavy truck industry exported 24,600 vehicles, +4.1%/+4.2% year-on-year. 5) Inventory: Heavy truck industry enterprise inventory +0.08,000 vehicles in March; channel inventory +16,000 vehicles, small additional inventory on the enterprise side, and continuous addition on the channel side. In January-March, the total wholesale volume was 272,000, +12.9% year-on-year. Looking ahead to April, we expect wholesale sales in the heavy truck industry to be around 93,000 vehicles, +11.9%/-19.7% year-on-month respectively.
Industry structure: the penetration rate of new energy decreased month-on-month, the penetration rate of new energy in the heavy truck industry was 7.03%, -0.6pct month-on-month
In March, the sales volume of new energy products in the domestic heavy truck industry was 5,280 vehicles, and the industry penetration rate was 7.0% (pure electricity+hydrogen energy+fuel cell), +4.6/-0.6 pct, respectively. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric heavy trucks was 5040 units, +188.8%/+151.5%; fuel cell heavy truck sales volume was 240 units, +106.9%/+860.0% year over month; sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks was 29,331 units, +207.8%/+205.8% year over month, respectively. Natural gas heavy truck sales accounted for 39.03%, +26.6/+2.8pct, respectively. In March, NEV heavy trucks did not perform as well as fuel heavy trucks.
Company dimension: In March, production batches of major heavy truck companies were adjusted upward sequentially, and Sinotruk's sales performance led the industry.
1) Wholesale: The top five domestic heavy truck wholesale sales volume (including incomplete vehicles and semi-trailers) in March were Sinotruk/FAW Group/Dongfeng Automotive/Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck/BAIC Foton, with sales volumes of 3.01/2.61/2.10/1.771/0.97 million vehicles respectively. The market share of the five companies was 26.0%/22.5%/18.1%/14.8%/8.4%, CR5 was 89.8%, compared with -1.1/0.3+pct, respectively.
2) Shanghai Insurance: The top five domestic heavy truck terminal insurance volume (including incomplete vehicles and semi-trailers) were FAW Group/Sinotruk/Dongfeng Automobile/Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck/BAIC Foton, with market shares of 24.2%/20.4%/19.2%/11.7%/9.7%, CR5 was 85.1%, +1.6/+0.3 pct, respectively. Concentration increased month-on-month.
Engine support dimensions: Weichai's engine supply increased month-on-month. Jiefang/Sinotruk/Shaanxi Automobile all maintained a major supplier, and the leading position for heavy truck engines was stable.
1) Engine company perspective: In March, Weichai Power supplied 28,000 units, +35.0%/+187.5%, respectively. The core supporting car companies are Sinotruk, FAW Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Dongfeng Motor, and Dayun Group. The five automakers accounted for 37.8%/28.0%/24.4%/3.4%/2.2% of shipments, respectively, and CR5 was 95.9%, +8.7/-0.7 pct, respectively. Weichai Power's market share in the natural gas heavy truck engine segment was 68.0%, -0.9 pct.
2) Looking at automakers internally: Among Shaanxi Heavy Truck/Sinotruk/FAW Jiefang/Dongfeng Automobile/Foton Motor companies, Weichai engine support ratios were 78.1%/68.9%/43.1%/6.6%/5.4%, respectively, +32.9/+4.7/-0.4/-7.1pct year-on-year, and +0.8/-0.4/-0.9/+1.0pct, respectively. Weichai is the core supply chain for Shaanxi Auto/Sinotruk/Jiefang.
Risk warning: The recovery of the domestic heavy truck industry fell short of expectations, and the rise in natural gas prices exceeded expectations.