Dongwu Securities predicted a net profit of 6.2/7.5/860 million yuan for Jiumaojiu (09922) from 2024-26 to the mother.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that maintaining the Jiumaojiu (09922) “buy” rating, it is expected to have a low and high operating pace for the full year 2024 (corresponding to the high and back of the 23-year base figure), and the net profit forecast for 2024-26 is 6.2/7.5/860 million yuan (2024-26 profit CAGR is 18%). The current valuation is at a historically low level, and the company will place more emphasis on shareholder returns in the future. The company believes that the recent transaction price does not reflect its intrinsic value, and plans to publicly repurchase shares in the market at a maximum amount of HK$100 million (about 1.5% of the latest market value) in due course. The company's large-scale repurchases are ahead of schedule, which shows that the company values shareholder returns and long-term business confidence.
According to the report, the growth rate of the same store in Jiumaojiu was disrupted by the high base of the previous year, and the level of turnover in Taier is still high. 1) 2024Q1 operations basically continue the 2023Q4 trend. The average daily sales growth rate of the same store was under pressure due to factors such as a high turnover in the same period last year, changes in the menu structure and continuation of promotions since 2023H2, and customer unit price adjustments. The market already had certain expectations, and the pace of opening was steady (there were few Q1 stores released over the years, mainly due to poor construction around the Spring Festival, and more stores will gradually be opened starting in Q2).
2) Judging from the absolute price index, Tai'er still remains 3.9 times higher (excluding takeout); the hot pot is falling but customer orders are relatively stable. The bank expects the brand to focus on refining existing stores and encrypt stores that have already entered the market. Key business areas include Guangdong, Fujian, Shanghai, and East China, creating high potential. The brand's internal adjustments will be made to reduce costs and increase efficiency, launch more combinations, and diversified marketing activities to expand the customer base. The brand operating profit margin is 12.2% in 2023, and is expected to continue to increase in 2024, and the operating results are worth looking forward to. The volume and price of Jiumaojiu Restaurant have risen sharply since 2023, and its performance continued to be steady in 2024Q1. In recent years, Yungui flavors such as sour soup have risen to prominence in the catering industry. The company has increased the layout of sour soup racetracks outside the mountains. Joining outside the mountains has great potential for expansion, and it is expected to become the third growth curve in the medium to long term.