Fund managers include valuers, growth groups, racetrack groups, cyclists, line drawing groups, rotation groups...

The “Mao Index” and “Ning Group” have continued to be adjusted over the past two years. The performance of value-oriented and growth-oriented fund managers is in deep quagmire. Cyclical stocks represented by “feathering eyebrows” have soared in the past two years, and cyclical fund managers have come to an end...

1

The champion fund manager played a game of rotation

Coal stocks soared, and Huang Hai became a star fund manager.

The reason why Huanghai received great attention from the market is that in 2022, it relied on its heavy coal holdings and won the active equity fund championship; in 2023, 10,000 Select broke the “championship curse”, with a yield of more than 20%; and since this year, Wanjia Choice has continued to maintain high combat effectiveness, with a yield of 19.09%.

Huanghai's yield in the past year was 33.48%, ranking first among similar fund managers in the market. By the end of the first quarter, the total amount of funds managed by Huanghai was 6.595 billion yuan, compared with 3.443 billion yuan at the end of 2023, an increase of 91.55% over the previous year.

This star fund manager has had 0 surveys in the past year, with an average turnover rate of 80.83%. In a quarterly report, he revealed that he had participated in growth industries such as computing power, electronics, and new energy for a short period of time, and then quickly adjusted positions.

Looking at total holdings, compared with the end of 2023, Huanghai continued to increase its coal holdings in the first quarter, greatly increasing its holdings of Huaibei Mining, China Coal Energy, Huayang Shares, Guanghui Energy, Shanmei International, and Lu'an Huaneng; Xinji Energy became a new heavy stock in the first quarter, and Bank of Ningbo withdrew from the top ten heavy stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023.

(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)

Judging from all holdings at the end of the first quarter, heavy stocks are still used energy represented by coal. However, instead of standing still in positions, Huang Hai is playing around in rotation. Huang Hai confessed in a quarterly report that he actually participated in growth industries such as computing power, electronics, and new energy for a short period of time, and then quickly transferred its warehouse to coal.

Huang Hai said in the quarterly report, “Looking back at the first quarter, our overall thinking continues the defensive and counterattack practices of the past two years. When the market is in a phase of panic, it moderately increases the flexibility and aggressiveness of the mix, especially when the liquidity risk shock before the Spring Festival is strong, rapidly increasing positions in growth industries such as computing power, electronics, and new energy, and when dividend assets reverse due to the rotation of style, they are redistributed to energy stocks represented by coal.”

Looking ahead to the second quarter, Huang Hai pointed out that although external demand currently supports exports and manufacturing, in the future, the market's focus will return to domestic economic and policy responses, and A-shares will reflect a volatile and divided structural market.

Huang Hai believes that under the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad this year, it is still judged that coal stocks with low debt and high cash flow have high safety and scarcity; at the same time, once domestic infrastructure investment rebounds steadily, domestic cyclical products with low inventories will usher in better upward price elasticity, and will actively balance the defensive and offensive nature of the combination, so as to adapt to changes in the macro cycle and achieve steady increase in net value.

Huang Hai said in the 2023 annual report that after experiencing the elimination of domestic real estate risks and overseas inflation risks, the market is expected to actually begin a volatile cycle. Compared with 2023, investment opportunities will clearly spread, and 2024 may become an inflection point year.

Looking ahead to the 2024 macro environment, Huang Hai said that the 2024 policy will continue to develop steadily under multiple goals such as steady growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention, and the market's expectations for the macroeconomy will go through a process from weak to strong.

Regarding overseas markets, Huang Hai believes that overseas US fiscal expansion continues, financial conditions remain relaxed, and the risk of secondary inflation is “looming,” the interest rate cut cycle may arrive later than market expectations, and major global assets may still face certain fluctuations.

2

Zhang Kun put forward different views on the current market

The latest trend of public equity firm Zhang Kun came to light. As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, Zhang Kun's management scale was about 64.732 billion yuan. Compared with 65.474 billion yuan at the end of 2023, his fund management scale was slightly reduced by 742 million yuan.

The 4 funds Zhang Kun manages are E-Fangda Blue Chip Select, E-Fangda Premium Select, E-Fangda Premium Enterprise Holdings for 3 years, and E-Fangda Asia Select. In terms of specific operations, the quarterly report shows that Zhang Kun's overall holdings remained stable, and the four funds he managed all had positions above 94% at the end of the first quarter. As stock prices changed, the ranking of the top ten heavy-held stocks was adjusted.

Zhang Kun's current largest product is E-Fangda Blue Chip Select. As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the net asset value of the fund was 41,144 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.42% from 41,738 billion yuan at the end of 2023.

CNOOC promoted to the “number one heavy stock” selected by E-Fangda Blue Chips. CNOOC's stock price surged 39.38% in the first quarter. During the stock price increase, due to the limit that a single share position cannot exceed the 10% limit of the fund's net asset value, E-Fangda Blue Chips selected “passively” to reduce its holdings in CNOOC.

Asmack, Prada, and Samsonite entered the top ten largest positions in the first quarter of the first quarter.

Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report, “The Fund's stock position was basically stable in the first quarter, and the structure was adjusted to adjust the structure of the consumer and pharmaceutical industries. In terms of individual stocks, we still own high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns, and strong competitiveness.”

Judging from the total holdings of Zhang Kun's products, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, and Meituan were reduced in the first quarter. Among them, China Merchants Bank's holdings were greatly reduced; positions in Tencent Holdings and CNOOC were added; and Shanxi Fenjiu replaced Pharmaceutical and Biotech entered the top ten positions.

In the past two years, resource stocks represented by the coal, petroleum, and mining industries have risen, and high-dividend strategies have been sought after by the market. Funds have gained access to resource stocks all over the world, and high-performing funds have entered the resource sector. Zhang Kun put forward a different opinion on this. Zhang Kun stated:

1. Judging from the stock asset performance of long-term treasury bonds and bond-like bonds, the market's risk appetite has been reduced to a very low level. This is reflected in giving high weight to a static dividend rate level during pricing, and there are doubts about growth, especially the long-term growth of enterprises. Under the simplified model, between company A with 5% dividend rate +1% growth and company B with 3% dividend rate +8% growth, most of the market at this stage prefer to choose company A, and such companies have also attracted the allocation of a large number of fixed income funds.

2. If we review the long history of the capital market, an important reason why stocks have a higher long-term yield than bonds is that stocks have continuous growth, and the necessary condition for high-quality stocks is long-term continuous growth. Therefore, we believe that as stock investors, we should always give considerable weight to seek long-term growth.

3. Although in the period of high-quality development, the basic probability that the company will continue to grow rapidly is declining, we should never give up looking for moderate and continuous growth, and growth can also be obtained by searching in different segmented structures. However, growth must be of high quality; it must not be brought about by extensive management or burning of money; it should be obtained with a reasonable marginal return on investment. We will pay close attention to the company's ability to control costs and expenses, the ability to control working capital, the ability to generate free cash flow, the ability to allocate capital, and the will to return shareholders.

4. Furthermore, from a valuation perspective, in the past three years, due to continuous revisions in the market's long-term growth expectations, the valuation of Company A has increased, while the valuation of Company B has declined. We believe that judging from the absolute and relative levels of various valuation latitudes (price-earnings ratio, market capitalization/free cash flow), the current stage of market pricing makes Company B attractive for long-term high-quality growth.

3

Remittance made a huge amount of money to increase its holdings

Recently, the Fund's quarterly reports have been revealed one after another.

According to the latest quarterly report disclosed by Huaxia Shanghai Securities 50 ETF, the cumulative share of “Agency 1” and “Agency 2” at the beginning of the period was 12.36 billion shares. Coincidentally, this figure is the share of Central Remittance's holdings at the end of last year.

In the first quarter of this year, “Agency 1” and “Agency 2” in the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF increased their positions significantly, and the cumulative share of holdings increased to 28.23 billion shares at the end of the first quarter. If you estimate the ETF's average price for the first quarter, the cost is about 37.6 billion yuan.

The Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF also has a similar situation.

According to the fund's quarterly report, the cumulative initial holdings of “Agency 1” and “Agency 2” were 2.89 billion shares, which is also completely consistent with Central Huijin's holdings data as of the end of last year.

In the first quarter of this year, “Institution 1” and “Institution 2” in the Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF continued to increase their holdings by about 13.2 billion shares and 3.8 billion shares respectively, which is equivalent to an increase of about 17 billion shares in the first quarter. If you estimate the average price of this ETF in the first quarter, the cost is about 58.2 billion yuan.

In addition to the Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, the Harvest Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF and the eFangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 also experienced a similar situation.

According to the average price estimate for the Harvest Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF in the first quarter, the institutional holdings of the fund increased by about 54.3 billion yuan. According to the first quarterly report of the E-Fangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, institutional holdings increased by about 76.1 billion yuan.

In summary, the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF, the Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, the Harvest Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, and the eFangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF are suspected to have spent more than 200 billion yuan in the first quarter, and not including other funds that have not yet been disclosed.

Furthermore, since the fund's quarterly report does not directly disclose Huijin's holding share and market value, the above data is only calculated by the market through speculation in the fund's annual report and quarterly report. The details are subject to Huijin's announcement.

According to public information, the Central Huijin announcement on February 6 of this year fully acknowledged the current allocation value of the A-share market. It has recently expanded the scope of increasing holdings of tradable open index funds (ETFs), and will continue to increase efforts to increase holdings, expand the scale of holdings, and resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.