Despite an already strong run, China Qinfa Group Limited (HKG:866) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 53% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 227% in the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China Qinfa Group's P/E ratio of 8.2x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
For example, consider that China Qinfa Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is China Qinfa Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Qinfa Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 57%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
With this information, we find it interesting that China Qinfa Group is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Its shares have lifted substantially and now China Qinfa Group's P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that China Qinfa Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for China Qinfa Group (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
You might be able to find a better investment than China Qinfa Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.