While Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$768 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$666. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Graham Holdings' current trading price of US$698 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at Graham Holdings's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What Is Graham Holdings Worth?
According to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, we've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. We find that Graham Holdings's ratio of 15.26x is trading slightly below its industry peers' ratio of 18.89x, which means if you buy Graham Holdings today, you'd be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe Graham Holdings should be trading in this range, then there isn't much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Graham Holdings's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Graham Holdings generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Graham Holdings' revenue growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in GHC's positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven't considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GHC? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on GHC, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for GHC, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Graham Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be familiar with.
If you are no longer interested in Graham Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.