Jinwu Financial News | According to Caitong Securities Research, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) ADT was HK$111.2 billion in March, +23.6%/-12.1% month-on-month, and HK$99.4 billion in 2024Q1, +9.2%/-22.3% month-on-year; among them, southbound trading had an ADT of +23.3% month/year over year +23.3%/+0.9% to HK$31.7 billion in 2024Q1. Northbound trading in March ADT was 7.2%/+37.9% month-on-year to 140.6 billion yuan, and 2024Q1 +22.7%/+37.1% month-on-year to 133 billion yuan.
According to the bank, the Stock Exchange stock options were +0.0% month-on-month/-10.7% to 643,000 shares in March; 2024Q1 +8.6% month-on-month/-3.3% to 643,000; futures exchange futures options (excluding stock options) ADV -1.9%/+3.9% to 825,000 shares, and 2024Q1 +14.0%/+13.5% to 855,000 shares. Based on the above high-frequency data, the bank expects the total revenue and investment income of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2024Q1 to be HK$5.144 billion, +5.5%/-7.4% month/year over year; net profit to mother is HK$2,853 billion, +9.0%/-16.3% YoY.
The bank said that since the beginning of 2024 (April 17), the ADT of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HK$99.8 billion, -20.4% compared with the same period last year, but there has been a marginal improvement since the beginning of the year. The bank believes that with continued strengthening of domestic policies, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ADT is expected to continue to recover; at the same time, based on the lag in changes in investment income from corporate security deposits and own capital compared to overseas interest rates, the company's investment income is expected to remain at a high level in 2024. The bank expects the company's net profit to be HK$123.4/130.7/HK$14.09 billion in 2024/2025/2026, respectively, +4.0%/+5.9%/+7.8% year over year. The current stock price corresponds to 22.2 × PE in 2024. Since 2018, the PE center of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been 39.1 ×, maintaining the purchase rating.