长江证券:3月风电市场情绪有所回暖 二季度有望带动板块修复

Changjiang Securities: Wind power market sentiment picked up in March and is expected to drive sector recovery in the second quarter

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 18 22:00

Changjiang Securities released a research report stating that market sentiment has picked up since March. The superposition is about to enter the second quarter, and construction of the Sea Breeze project has started one after another, driving the sector to recover.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Changjiang Securities released a research report indicating that market sentiment has picked up since March, and the superposition is about to enter the second quarter. Construction of the Sea Breeze project will start one after another, driving the sector to recover. Looking ahead to 24 years, it is expected that as seabreeze projects in various provinces and cities are launched one after another, it is expected that an increase in tenders will be released, which in turn will form a catalyst. Continue to be optimistic about the growth and certainty of the Sea Breeze Circuit, and recommend submarine cables, tower pipe piles, and Alpha-equipped parts and fan faucets.

The main views of Changjiang Securities are as follows:

Volume and price: In March, the sea wind tender released the volume month-on-month, and the price of raw materials fell month-on-month

1) In terms of installed capacity, wind power added a total of about 9.89GW in January-February, an increase of 69.35% over the previous year. 2) In terms of bidding, wind power tenders in March were 10.5GW (up 146% year on year), of which land wind tenders were 9.8 GW (up 191% year on year), and sea wind tenders released month-on-month (about 0.7 GW). The trend of large-scale fans is clear. In March, the 8MW model in the bid for Lufeng was relatively high, mainly for the 6.1 million kilowatt new energy project at the northern foothills of Huadian Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang. The Haifeng tender was mainly for 12MW models, mainly for the North L site on the Shandong Peninsula. Huadian Group's Lufeng tenders accounted for a relatively high share (about 47%), while Huaneng Group had a higher share of Seafeng tenders (about 72%).

3) In terms of winning the bid, in March, Lu Feng won the bid for Goldwind Technology (33%), CRRC (26%), and Yunda shares (21%) with a higher share (including winning candidates, winning overseas orders, excluding frame competition), and Haifeng won no public project bid in March. In terms of winning bids for submarine cables, submarine cables have won a total of 1,846 billion yuan since 2024, and Hengtong Optoelectronics has won a high bid share (about 62%).

4) In terms of price, the winning bid price of Land Wind (excluding the tower cylinder) in March was 1,487 yuan/KW, a slight increase over the previous month; the winning bid price for Land Wind (including the tower cylinder) was 2016 yuan/KW, which is an increase from month to month. It is expected that due to the high bid price of some China Resources projects. Prices of raw materials declined month-on-month. Among them, the average prices of medium and heavy plate, ductile iron, cast iron, scrap steel, billet, and epoxy resin in March were 3,911 yuan/ton, 3,555 yuan/ton, 3410 yuan/ton, 2,465 yuan/ton, and 1,3024 yuan/ton, down 3.0%, 4.2%, 6.5%, 2.7%, and 1.4%, respectively.

5) In terms of operation, the cumulative domestic wind power generation in January-February was about 149.73 billion kilowatt-hours, up 12.0% year on year, accounting for 10.1% of total power generation, up 0.2 pct year on year, and the cumulative number of hours used was 373 hours, down 28 hours year on year. The wind abandonment rate from January to February 2024 was about 6.3%, up from month to month. Wind abandonment was prominent in places such as Jilin, Hebei, Mengdong, and Henan.

Short-term: Domestic ocean wind competition and bidding are being actively promoted, and overseas sea wind projects are being restarted at an accelerated pace

Since March, sea breezes have been actively advancing in all provinces and cities in the country. In terms of competition, Shanghai announced a 5.8 GW ocean wind competition, Zhejiang launched a public inquiry on 2.5 GW ocean wind configuration, and it is expected that the grid connection of the Zhejiang Ocean Wind Project will still exceed expectations in 24-25. In terms of bidding, the Shandong Peninsula North L site (state management project) has started tendering for fans, etc. In terms of commencement of construction, Yangjiang and Jiangmen in Guangdong announced a list of key Haifeng construction projects in 2024 (about 9.4 GW in total). Up to now, the Sea Breeze project has started about 5.7 GW, and it is expected that construction will be concentrated in 24Q2. At the same time, various ministries and departments of the country have jointly launched the “Operation to Control the Wind in Thousands of Villages”, and decentralized wind power is expected to increase.

Since March, all provinces and cities have approved about 0.9 GW of seabreeze projects, and many seabreeze projects have successively carried out construction and installation and won bids, etc., which is expected to lay the foundation for commencement of tenders. Outside of mainland China, the US and other places have gradually resolved the seabreeze construction cost issue since 2024, and project restart has been accelerated. At the same time, about 41.3 GW projects outside mainland China are proceeding with approval processes such as environmental impact assessments; the project site won the bid for about 1.5 GW, and construction started about 2.1 GW (incomplete statistics). Seabreeze construction in various regions is being actively promoted, laying the foundation for a boom in later installations.

Medium to long term: Seabreeze installations are expected to increase in 2024, and potential catalysts will open up room for growth

Looking ahead to 2024, the installed capacity of Haifeng is expected to increase to 10GW, and the progress of project construction is expected to provide strong support. Looking ahead, Jiangsu and Guangdong Seafeng are expected to commence construction. The potential launch of tenders for the Seabreeze project, which has already been approved and is expected to be tendered, will be catalyzed. At the same time, various regions are actively promoting deep-sea breezes pilot projects, and overseas seabreeze construction is expected to restart and accelerate, providing opportunities for domestic enterprises to go overseas. Continue to be optimistic about the growth and certainty of the Sea Breeze Circuit, and recommend submarine cables, tower pipe piles, and Alpha-equipped parts and fan faucets.

Risk warning

1. Offshore wind power installations are lower than expected; 2. Profitability falls short of expectations due to increased competition.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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