David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000429) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development's Debt?
As you can see below, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development had CN¥7.68b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have CN¥4.72b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥2.96b.
How Healthy Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development had liabilities of CN¥1.54b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥7.42b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥4.72b and CN¥229.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.01b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Of course, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development has a market capitalization of CN¥20.6b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.73. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. Another good sign is that Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development has been able to increase its EBIT by 24% in twelve months, making it easier to pay down debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 88% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
The good news is that Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And the good news does not stop there, as its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also supports that impression! We would also note that Infrastructure industry companies like Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development commonly do use debt without problems. Considering this range of factors, it seems to us that Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development is quite prudent with its debt, and the risks seem well managed. So we're not worried about the use of a little leverage on the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.