Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.4% to US$68.48 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$1.9b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Fastenal after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fastenal's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$7.76b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.3% to US$2.11. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$67.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Fastenal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$85.00 and the most bearish at US$50.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Fastenal'shistorical trends, as the 6.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 8.3% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.6% per year. So although Fastenal is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fastenal. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$67.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Fastenal analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.