Jinwu Financial News | Guohai Securities released the Bilibili (09626) 2024Q1 outlook. The 2024Q1 company is expected to achieve operating income of 5.6 billion yuan (RMB, same below) (YoY +10%, QoQ -12%), the gross margin is expected to increase to 26% year on year (yoy+4pct, qoq+ remains flat), and the operating expense ratio is 44% (yoy-5pct, qoq-3pct). The various expense ratios continued to improve year on year, with adjusted operating loss of 600 million yuan and net loss of 490 million yuan year-on-year Significant narrowing.
The bank expects the 2024Q1 platform to maintain healthy growth in user traffic. MAU will increase 7% year over year to 336 million, DAU will increase 9% year over year to 102 million, DAU ratio will increase, and user stickiness and activity indicators will improve.
The bank adjusted the company's profit forecast considering the short-term pressure on the company's game business. The bank estimates that the company's FY2024-2026 revenue will be 259/299/33.9 billion yuan, NON-GAAP net profit of -9.8/8.4/1.71 billion yuan, and the corresponding PS will be 1.3x/1.1x/1.0x, respectively. The company's platform has deep ecological barriers, and user participation and retention rates are rising steadily, giving it a target MAU valuation of RMB 120 for 2024, corresponding to a market value of RMB 42.5 billion, a target PS1.8X with a target market value of RMB 46.7 billion, a SOTP valuation of RMB 46.1 billion, and a target market value of RMB 45.1 billion, and a target market value of RMB 45.1 billion for 2024, and a targetPrice of 107 yuan/HK$118 in 2024, maintaining a “buy” rating.