Jinwu Financial News | According to Guoxin Securities Research Report, the revenue growth rate of Nai Xue's Tea (02150) in the second half of 2023 declined month-on-month compared to the first half of the year, with a net interest rate of 0.4% for the whole year. The volume and price of the same store were under pressure in the second half of 2023, but cost reduction and efficiency were beginning to show results. Short-term demand is still disrupted. In the future, we will continue to track the pace of direct-run store inventory optimization and declining franchise expansion, taking into account the potential for overseas layout.
According to the bank, the company itself is at an inflection point in performance. The bank's previous forecast for 2023-2025 was based on the assumption that daily single-store sales would recover relatively smoothly and the single-store model improved after the liberalization of the domestic epidemic, but in reality, store sales in the second half of last year were relatively lower than expected. At the same time, the profit margin for the whole year recorded 0.4%, which was also lower than the company's 5% forecast at the beginning of the year. Considering the current tea consumption environment, store volume and price pressure is still ongoing. The bank lowered the company's single-store daily sales assumption; at the same time, considering that the company's main expansion model changed from direct management to franchise. Due to the large difference between the profit model and the contribution of a single store, the bank adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts.
The bank expects the company's adjusted net profit for 2024-2025 to be RMB 1.0/24/ 370 million (previously the 2024-2025 forecast was RMB 63/960 million, plus 2026), and the dynamic PE valuation is 37/16/10x. The main expansion force of the company gradually changed from direct management to franchise. Among them, the optimization of the direct-run store model is showing initial results and there is still plenty of room for improvement. The advantages of franchisees are sinking and expanding the brand are worth verifying. Continue to observe the steady pace of same-store expansion and franchise expansion in the short term, and maintain the “gain” rating.