The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that at the end of the first quarter, the Clarkson New Ship Price Index closed at 183.2 points, up 1.1% from the beginning of the year, and 50.9% higher than at the beginning of the current ship price increase. Taking the high point of the previous cycle (August 2008 price) as a reference, the gap between the current overall price of new ships and the historical peak is about 4.5%. Looking at ship types, bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships, and gas carriers are currently in the 70.8%, 84.5%, 88.8%, and 107.6% positions respectively, and there is still room for growth. As orders for high-value ships continue to be delivered, the profitability of shipping companies is expected to be quickly unleashed.

Fangzheng Securities's views are as follows:

The boating market maintained an upward trend in the first quarter.

The average value of the Clarkson Shipping Index reached 24,795 US dollars/day, up 0.7% year on year, making it the second-highest in the same period since 2009. In the first quarter, the world received 414 new orders and 28.475 million DWT, an increase of 15.4% over the previous year; 392 ships were delivered, totaling 8.72 million CGT, up about 4.2% from the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter, Clarkson's new ship price index closed at 183.2 points, up 1.1% from the beginning of the year and 50.9% higher than at the beginning of the rise in current ship prices.

Driven by multiple factors, the shipping boom is expected to continue.

Taking the high point of the previous cycle (August 2008 price) as a reference, the gap between the current overall price of new ships and the historical peak is about 4.5%. Looking at ship types, bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships, and gas carriers are currently in the 70.8%, 84.5%, 88.8%, and 107.6% positions respectively, and there is still room for growth. As the US economy continues to recover and overseas manufacturing contracts or gradually comes to an end, the growth of global import and export business will continue to drive higher freight rates for container ships and bulk carriers. As for oil tankers, OPEC+ continues to limit production or push oil prices higher. Expectations that oil supply will be tight in the second half of the year may push countries to replenish their stocks, and oil transportation is expected to remain strong.

China's shipping companies' profits will gradually be realized.

China delivered 4.54 million CGT of new orders in the first quarter, up about 16% year on year. In terms of CGT, China accounts for 52% of the world's new delivery orders. Looking at core shipyard data alone, China's ships delivered a total of 787,000 CGT, up 935% year on year, up 4% month on month; China Shipbuilding Defense delivered a total of 95,600 CGT, up 104% year on year, down 23.8% month on month; China Heavy Industries delivered a total of 420,000 CGT, up 110% year on year and 72% month on month. As orders for high-value ships continue to be delivered, the profitability of shipping companies is expected to be quickly released.

Recommended attention: On the one hand, the current boom in the shipbuilding industry continues to rise, and the long-term performance of ship assembly and core supporting companies is highly deterministic. In the current turbulent period of rapid changes in hot topics in the market and uncertain Q1 performance, the cost performance ratio of high-quality ships' assets is prominent. It is recommended to focus on Chinese ships (600150.SH), China Heavy Industries (601989.SH), and China Power (); on the other hand, new marine combat power/productivity is expected to enter a stage of rapid development in the second half of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. 600685.SH 600482.SH Core companies with high technical barriers and strong competitive advantages are expected to benefit deeply. It is recommended to focus on Western Materials (002149.SZ) and Xiangdian Co., Ltd. (600416.SH).

Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk.