Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603859) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥1.4b revenues missing by 14%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.33 falling short of forecasts by some -20%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nancal TechnologyLtd's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.99b in 2024. This reflects a major 41% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 59% to CN¥2.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.18 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥54.43, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nancal TechnologyLtd at CN¥59.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥50.77. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Nancal TechnologyLtd is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Nancal TechnologyLtd's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 41% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nancal TechnologyLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nancal TechnologyLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.