The main headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning include:

The Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report on a survey of business contacts in the region that the US economy has “expanded slightly” since late February, making it more difficult for companies to report rising costs.

“Consumer spending has generally seen little increase, but reports vary widely across regions and spending categories,” the Beige Book report released on Wednesday said. “Several reports mention weak discretionary spending, and consumer sensitivity to prices remains high.”

“Another frequent comment is that the ability of companies to pass on rising costs to consumers has decreased significantly in recent months, leading to a decline in profit margins,” the Beige Book said.

Traders are betting backwards that the Federal Reserve will be the first to cut interest rates

Interest rate futures market traders are betting heavily on a reverse bet that will pay off if the Federal Reserve actively relaxes monetary policy this year.

This type of betting occurs on secured overnight financing rate futures — which closely tracks the central bank's key policy interest rate — involving buying contracts in December 2024 while selling contracts due in December 2025.

It assumes that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates early before the November presidential election, and is more aggressive than the previous move to cut interest rates by 40 basis points, then this deal will be profitable.

UBS is reportedly planning a new round of layoffs involving investment banking, marketing and wealth management departments

According to people familiar with the matter, UBS plans to carry out a new round of layoffs and continue to reduce manpower after acquiring Credit Suisse.

People familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity due to undisclosed information, said that this round of layoffs is expected to affect more than 100 jobs in the company's global investment banking division. People familiar with the matter said that the layoff plan will begin in the next few weeks, which goes beyond routine cuts for underperforming workers.

Another person familiar with the matter said that the wealth management and marketing department is also expected to lay off staff. After UBS acquired Credit Suisse, the number of employees worldwide increased by about 45,000 to about 120,000.

Lagarde says the Eurozone economy is clearly showing signs of recovery

ECB President Lagarde said that the decline that has caused the European economy to almost stagnate for more than a year is coming to an end.

Lagarde told the Foreign Relations Committee in Washington on Wednesday that the output of the 20 Eurozone countries is “recovering, and we are clearly seeing signs of recovery.”

“We have not experienced a recession, but growth is very, very slow and very small,” she said. But “the employment and job market is excellent.”

The ECB will almost certainly cut interest rates at its next meeting in June to provide some support for economic growth, but it is increasingly uncertain what will happen after that. Citi: The Federal Reserve is not as “eagle” as it seems, and is still likely to cut interest rates five times this year

Citigroup economists are convinced that almost everyone on Wall Street misjudged the Federal Reserve.

After three consecutive months of slightly faster inflation than expected, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, and Morgan Stanley have all lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted on Tuesday that policymakers are in no hurry to relax policy.

However, Citigroup's Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark believe it is wrong to rush to make a judgment because the Federal Reserve is still worried that unexpectedly strong economic growth may come to a standstill. They both insist that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points five times this year, and that Fed policymakers will not let go of signs of slowing inflation or economic weakness.

“Our thinking about the 2024 economic outlook is very different from other forecasting agencies,” Hollenhorst said in an interview. “We think the Federal Reserve's response mechanism is more dovish than generally expected.”

How can 0.01% interest rates keep American savers Wall Street earnings reports have revealed scars

Among J.P. Morgan's many consumer accounts, one number is almost everywhere: 0.01%.

Whether you're saving $5 or $500,000, the interest rate on Chase Sapphire, Chase Premier Plus, and Chase Private Client checking accounts is only 0.01%. The same goes for savings account interest rates. The so-called “relationship rates” (relationship rates) are only 0.02%.

J.P. Morgan reported a decline in net interest income for the first quarter compared to the last three months of 2023, the first month-on-month decline in 11 quarters.

There are also difficult brothers and bad brothers in the bank. Wells Fargo reported net interest revenue that fell short of analysts' expectations. Both banks mentioned that increased interest expenses on deposits offset the benefits of higher interest rates on loans.

This problem has actually quietly surfaced since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates; it has only recently affected Wall Street profits. Americans are using cash smarter.