Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals.

Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Arvinas from its 18 analysts is for revenues of US$161m in 2024 which, if met, would be a major 105% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$5.13. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$143m and US$5.82 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$70.83, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Arvinas' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 105% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 41% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Arvinas to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Arvinas' prospects. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to this year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at Arvinas.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Arvinas analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.