Recently, America's strong job market performance and sticky inflation may delay the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut and reduce the probability of interest rate cuts, but market expectations are still gaining momentum, and there is still room for continued improvement in expectations and valuations.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report indicating that according to Wind, COMEX gold rose 0.47% to 2360.2 US dollars/ounce this week, a record high. The March CPI and core CPI announced by the US this week all exceeded expectations. US inflation continues to be sticky. The minutes of the FOMC March meeting show that the Federal Reserve is concerned about the slow decline in inflation. Recently, America's strong job market performance and sticky inflation may delay the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut and reduce the probability of interest rate cuts, but market expectations are still gaining momentum, and there is still room for continued improvement in expectations and valuations.
Recommended attention: Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), Zhaojin Mining (01818), Shandong Gold (600547.SH,01787), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), Yintai Gold (000975.SZ), Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ), Shengda Resources (000603.SZ), etc.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
Basic metals: The direction of easing high overseas interest rates remains unchanged. It is expected that basic metals will still rise and fall easily
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed. The number of interest rate cuts in 24 years may be lower than expected. Other countries such as Europe and Canada have suppressed economic growth for a long time. The momentum for interest rate cuts may be earlier and stronger than the US. There is a difference between the stickiness of inflation in overseas countries and the timing of interest rate cuts. However, the overall overseas high interest rate environment will not change in the direction of easing in 24 years. Domestic equipment updates will also provide an increase in demand. It is expected that basic metals prices and stock trends will still rise and fall easily. There is still room for improvement in stock valuations after slight fluctuations.
Recommended attention: Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993.SH,03993), Western Mining (601168.SH), Jin Chengxin (603979.SH), China Aluminum (601600.SH,02600), Yunlu Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), etc.
Steel: The sharp rise in costs has supported a slight rise in steel prices. It is expected that the price of steel will be dominated by shocks
On the supply side, according to Wind, the industry's profitability (38%) is still low even though it has been repaired month-on-month, and costs are rising or continuing to suppress supply. On the demand side, the wire screw procurement process is such as scheduled repair. On the cost side, low profit margins are expected to suppress demand for raw material procurement. In terms of price interest, it is expected that prices will mainly fluctuate due to rising costs or narrowing the difference between purchases and sales in the later stages.
Recommended attention: Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019.SH), Valin Steel (000932.SZ), Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH), etc.
Energy metals: upstream prices are raised, downstream stocks are replenished as needed, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range
The overall inventory in the industrial chain is reasonable. Upstream sales determine production, downstream stocks are replenished as needed, and lithium salt prices have risen slightly. Domestic environmental disturbances continue, and lithium salt factories are raising prices for shipments. It is expected that lithium prices will still fluctuate in a narrow range.
Recommended attention: Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ), Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192.SZ), Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ), Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), etc.
Small metals: improved supply and demand drive the prices of rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum to rise
Downstream orders have increased, rare earth transactions have picked up, and prices have continued to rise. A new round of environmental inspections has entered Jiangxi, exacerbating the contradiction between supply and demand for tungsten. However, due to the large recycling ratio, tungsten wire for downstream photovoltaics is less elastic in driving demand, and Guangfa Securities believes that the price of tungsten will rise slightly. Weak domestic demand provides room for a phased easing of the conflict between supply and demand for molybdenum, but the penetration rate of terminal demand represented by Cybertruck is gradually increasing, and molybdenum prices will once again open an upward channel.
Recommended attention: Gold and Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (601958.SH), Shenghe Resources (600392.SH), Northern Rare Earths (600111.SH), Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ), Xiamen Tungsten Industry (), etc. 600549.SH
Risk warning: The macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations; downstream demand for metals fell short of expectations; the growth rate of supply from related mines exceeded expectations; the Fed's interest rate hike exceeded expectations; downstream demand from the military industry fell short of expectations; production of iron ore, coking coal and coke fell short of expectations; and the reduction in crude steel production fell short of expectations.