The Zhitong Finance App learned that Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose by more than 10%. As of press release, it had risen 10.54% to HK$10.28, with a turnover of HK$46,197 million.
Guotai Junan believes that through eight rounds of consecutive declines in coke prices at the beginning of the year, the steel industry's profit per ton of steel has recovered to an average of 200 yuan/ton in 2023, from the industry's loss situation to profit. Judging that in the context of profit recovery, the momentum for continuing to reduce the price pressure on the coke side is not strong; moreover, coking companies have lost money throughout the industry and carried out comprehensive production restrictions to raise prices. It is expected that the price has basically reached the bottom.
The bank believes that considering that the supply and demand for coking coal is still tightening throughout the year, once there is a change on the supply side or demand side, it may lead to a reversal in current fundamental factors, leading to a reversal in coking coal prices. The price of coking coal may have bottomed out in April, and there is a possibility of a reversal in the second half of the year.