Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that CapitaLand Investment Limited (SGX:9CI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does CapitaLand Investment Carry?
As you can see below, CapitaLand Investment had S$12.0b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of S$2.46b, its net debt is less, at about S$9.58b.
A Look At CapitaLand Investment's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that CapitaLand Investment had liabilities of S$3.54b due within a year, and liabilities of S$12.4b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had S$2.46b in cash and S$1.10b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total S$12.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of S$13.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on CapitaLand Investment's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
CapitaLand Investment shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (10.8), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.9 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. More concerning, CapitaLand Investment saw its EBIT drop by 8.2% in the last twelve months. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CapitaLand Investment can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, CapitaLand Investment generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 92% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
To be frank both CapitaLand Investment's interest cover and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that CapitaLand Investment's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with CapitaLand Investment (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.