Efforts to promote renewable energy are putting pressure on Europe's nuclear energy industry. While the urgency of producing fossil-free electricity is unprecedented, a surge in renewable energy and a sharp drop in electricity prices are undermining the operating foundation of nuclear power plants. Nuclear power is still the cornerstone of parts of mainland Europe's power grid.
There are signs that nuclear power plants will face a difficult period. Demand has not fully recovered since the energy crisis, and the region's wind and solar power generation has repeatedly reached new highs, encroaching on the share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants delivered to the national grid.
“According to current electricity prices, traditional base-charge power plants will be in trouble unless we experience very unfavorable solar and wind conditions for a longer period of time, droughts or intense heat,” said Sigurd Pedersen Lie (Sigurd Pedersen Lie), a senior analyst at the Oslo weather and ocean forecasting company StormGeo Nena A/S.
In the long run, this is a warning sign. Although countries such as Britain and France plan to invest heavily in nuclear power plants and regard this technology as a key factor in curbing global warming, reactors may still face increasingly serious crowding out effects. At the UN climate conference to be held in Dubai at the end of 2023, more than 20 countries, including Britain, France, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, and South Korea, called for global nuclear power generation to triple the current level by mid-century.
Electricite de France SA (Electricite de France SA) has just resumed the operation of the nuclear power plant after a long period of downtime and maintenance, but now it has to cut production, suspend power generation, or extend downtime. Over the weekend, as electricity prices turned negative, the company shut down 6 nuclear power plants.
In southern Spain, electricity prices plummeted to their lowest level since 2013 and remained almost negative for several weeks. Over the past 5 weeks, the country's Asco I and Asco 2 reactors have experienced regular production cuts. Nuclear power plants in the Nordic region have also experienced more frequent production cuts.
Although EDF's reactor design is flexible, Cederic Lewandowski (Cederic Lewandowski), head of its nuclear and thermal power division, said at a Senate hearing that the company is “extremely careful” in evaluating current developments.
The installed capacity of new wind power in EU countries in 2023 reached a record level. According to data from lobbying groups, the installed capacity of solar energy has increased by more than 40% for the third year in a row.
Nuclear power operators often reduce power generation when demand is low and the supply of solar and wind energy surges, but completely shutting down the unit is rare because restarting takes time and involves complicated processes.
“Our biggest concern is reactor shutdowns,” Lewandowski said. “If we often have to shut down due to renewable energy, climate change, etc., we have to take a very serious look at this issue.”
As industrial activity declines on weekends and holidays, the pressure to limit the amount of nuclear power generated is likely to resurface soon. According to data, electricity consumption in France dropped to only 33 gigawatts before dawn on Sunday. The model shows that electricity consumption will drop below 35 gigawatts again next weekend. This is a level more common in May when the weather gets warmer. Recently, electricity prices in France have been hovering below 10 euros per megawatt-hour, and there was even a negative value in the Paris Epex Spot SE exchange auction.
Sabrina Kernbichler (Sabrina Kernbichler), chief power analyst at energy consulting firm Energy Aspects, said that EDF must obtain a price of 22 euros (about $23.80) per megawatt hour in the wholesale market in order to achieve balance of payments. EDF declined to comment.
It's not just nuclear power plants that are affected. StormGeo's Pedersen Lie said that some German coal-fired power plants may also face months of inactivity because the operating cost of natural gas power plants is lower than that of coal-fired power plants after the gas price plummeted. Emeric de Vigan (Emeric de Vigan), vice president of electricity marketing at industry consulting firm Kpler SAS, said the mild, windy, and rainy winter has also heightened producers' concerns. This weather has forced hydropower operators to empty their reservoirs to make room for the snow to melt.
As green energy continues to expand, especially if electricity demand remains low for a long time, the issue of nuclear power generation will only become more serious. The EU has set a goal of increasing the share of renewable energy in the EU energy structure to 42.5% by the end of this decade, which will further increase the risks in traditional power industries such as nuclear power, coal power, and even natural gas power generation.