The release of Apple's MR headset is expected to drive the consumer electronics industry into a new cycle of industrial innovation. Demand for 3C automation equipment is also expected to benefit from factors such as accelerated industry ecological construction, technological improvement, and cost reduction into a period of rapid growth.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Shanxi Securities Research Report indicates that the release of Apple's MR headphone is expected to drive the consumer electronics industry into a new cycle of industrial innovation, and demand for 3C automation equipment is also expected to benefit from factors such as accelerated industry ecological construction, technological improvements, and cost reduction into a period of rapid growth. The focus is on recommending two major segments that account for a relatively high total machine cost and benefit penetration rate improvement logic: Micro OLED and Pancake. Related equipment is expected to enjoy growth dividends. As new technology iterates and matures, cost reduction and efficiency bring supply-side capacity expansion, and the leading influence of Apple Vision Pro on the new technology, related flat panel display module devices are expected to usher in a broad incremental market space.
The main views of Shanxi Securities are as follows:
XR is poised to scale, and global VR shipments are expected to reach 52% CAGR in 24-27. Along with the maturity of the ecosystem and the iteration of new products, especially driven by Apple's Vision Pro and Meta Quest 3 headsets, there is a possibility that the XR market will explode. 2024 is expected to be a year of recovery, and 2027 is expected to grow by leaps and bounds. According to iResearch's forecast, global VR terminal equipment shipments in 2024 will rise slightly compared to last year, and are expected to exceed 8.1 million units; in 2027, they will soar 80% year-on-year to 28.65 million units.
Apple Vision Pro accounts for more than 60% of the supply chain in mainland China, and the display+optical module accounts for nearly 60% of the total machine cost, and related manufacturing equipment is expected to fully benefit. According to WellsenNXR, the core components of Apple Vision Pro, display, optics, computing and storage, structural components, and interaction sensors account for 43.9%, 15.0%, 14.4%, 8.1%, and 6.5% of the total machine cost, respectively. Apple Vision Pro accounts for more than 60% of the supply chain in mainland China. Combined with the multi-faceted support of China's policies, demand for domestic 3C automation equipment is expected to benefit from factors such as accelerated ecological construction, technological upgrading, and cost reduction in the virtual reality industry.
Increased penetration rate is driving scale expansion. It is estimated that the market size CAGR for micro OLEDs in the XR sector will reach 80.6% in 2023-2030. Flat panel display automation equipment will take advantage of the trend, and A-share equipment targets will focus on the later stages of production. MicroOLED meets the needs of near-eye display technology and has gradually become the mainstream choice for leading XR brands. Among micro OLED shipments in the global XR industry, Sony has a monopoly of 78% of the market share. Domestic manufacturers are currently in the stage of accelerated production line layout and rapid technical improvement. The cost of silicon-based OLEDs is expected to gradually decline, driving it to accelerate penetration in the XR field. Currently, the front-end manufacturing equipment market for flat panel display devices is basically monopolized by Japanese and Korean companies. In the field of late-stage manufacturing equipment, domestic companies such as Yitian Co., Ltd., Liande Equipment, Huaxing Yuanchuang, and Precision Electronics have superior products in different segments.
Pancake is expected to become the mainstream VR optical solution. The market size CAGR is expected to reach 72% in 24-27, and I am optimistic that related equipment will enter a high barrier and high growth circuit. As new VR products using the Pancake technology route are released one after another, the penetration rate of the Pancake solution is expected to increase dramatically. According to model estimates, Shanxi Securities expects the global VR headset pancake market to reach 12.3 billion yuan in 2027, and the CAGR will reach 72% in 2024-2027, and equipment orders are expected to benefit from high growth. Currently, Pancake has three major barriers: materials, process, and equipment. Domestic equipment such as Shenzhen Keda, JP, and Rongqi Technology has broken through the situation due to the lack of domestic equipment.
Key company concerns:
It is recommended to focus on equipment manufacturers that have entered the Apple VisionPro supply chain, and equipment targets with core technology reserves and leading layout of XR equipment: (1) Assembly equipment: Bozhong Precision (688097.SH), Yitian (300812.SZ), Liande Equipment (300545.SZ), Saiten (603283.SH); (2) Testing equipment: Zhi Cube (301312.SZ), Huaxing Yuanchuang (688001.SH), Precision Measurement Electronics (300567.SZ), Shenzhen Keda (688328. SH), JPT (688025.SH), Rongqi Technology (301360.SZ), Cree Technology (002957.SZ); (3) Evaporation Equipment: Olaide (688378.SH); (4) Plating/Coating Equipment: Boshuo Technology (3009591.SZ).
Risk warning: risk of cyclical fluctuations in the global economy and trade policies and trade friction; risk of demand falling short of expectations in the XR market; risk of increased market competition; risk of technology failure to form products or achieve industrialization; risk of loss of skilled personnel; risk of raw material price fluctuations, etc.