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【特约大V】邓声兴:美国上半年减息似乎无望 港股普遍疲弱

[Special Offer V] Deng Shengxing: There seems to be no hope that the US will cut interest rates in the first half of the year, and Hong Kong stocks are generally weak

金吾財訊 ·  Apr 15 21:34

Jinwu Financial News | The Hang Seng Index closed at 16,600 points on Monday (15th), down 121 points, or 0.7%. Full-day transactions amounted to $95.55 billion. The national index closed at 5,856 points, down 23 points, or 0.4%. The stock index closed at 3,442 points, down 31 or 0.9%. Blue chip stocks are generally weak. Out of 82 blue chips, 59 recorded declines. Chow Tai ?$#@$ (01929) dropped 7.9% to become the blue chip at the end of the pack; Lenovo (00992) bucked the market by 2.6%, the best performing blue chip; and SMIC (00981) rose 2.4% to become the second-best performing blue chip.

The Dow closed at 37,735 points on Monday (15th), down 248 points or 0.65%; the index fell 1.2% to 5061 points; the NASDAQ fell 1.79% to 15,885 points; and the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, returned 0.48%. European stocks developed individually. British stocks fell 0.38%, while French and German stocks rose 0.43% and 0.54% respectively. Among the major stocks, research institutes pointed out that iPhone shipments fell 2.2% in the first quarter; Tesla (Tesla) confirmed 10% of global layoffs, including senior vice president and battery department head Drew Baglino, announced his departure, and Rohan Patel, vice president responsible for public policy and business development, has also left his job. Tesla's stock price should have fallen 5.6%; Nvidia (Nvidia) stock price rose 2.8% for a while, closing down 2.5%. The Asia-Pacific stock market moved individually this morning (16th). The Nikkei 225 Index is currently at 38,564 points, down 668 points, or 1.7%. The South Korea Composite Index is currently at 2,625 points, down 45 points, or 1.69%. US interest rate cuts in the first half of the year seem hopeless, and Hong Kong stocks are generally weak.

Market Focus: Ctrip Group-S (09961)

The number of air ticket bookings for the Mainland's May Day holiday has soared, and domestic and international air ticket bookings have recently shown a sharp upward trend. Ctrip Group-S (9961) released the latest data. Ticket orders for national flower viewing attractions during the Qingming holiday increased by 391% year on year, and domestic country tour orders also increased 239% year on year. Furthermore, as of April 7, the popularity of domestic hotel searches during the “May 1st Golden Week” remained the same as in the same period in 2023, about double that of the same period in 2019, while the popularity of domestic airline ticket searches increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, up nearly 30% from the same period in 2019. In terms of overseas travel, outbound travel visas for the “May 1st” holiday have increased markedly since late February. They have increased more than threefold over the week after the Lunar New Year, and have been rising steadily at a rate of 50% each week. Optimistic about the booming trend of domestic travel and outbound travel, the leading Ctrip Group-S (9961) can look high on the front line. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic travelers in the country during the 3 days of the Qingming Festival holiday was 119 million, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019. Domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019. The recovery in tourism revenue reached a new high, and per capita spending exceeded the same period in 2019 for the first time, reflecting the resilience of domestic travel consumption demand.

Target price $415 Stop loss price $369

(The author is a licensed person of the Securities Regulatory Commission and the author does not hold the above shares)

Author: Dr. Deng Shengxing, Managing Partner, Yibo Capital Asia Limited

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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