Jinwu Financial News | According to Bank Securities Research, in 2023, China Biopharmaceutical (01177) had total operating revenue of 26.376 billion yuan (-8.71% YoY, +0.7% YoY if Chia Dao Dao's revenue scale was excluded), and net profit to mother was 2.33 billion yuan (8.32% YoY). Since the launch of anlotinib, the core product of innovative drugs, in 2018, the company has established a comprehensive innovation and transformation strategy. Since then, the transformation has been accelerated through various methods. Currently, the company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs, and its innovative business revenue continues to grow rapidly, successfully transforming from a pharmaceutical company with a focus on generic drugs to a first-tier innovative drug manufacturer.
According to the bank, the company's generic drug revenue in 2023 was 16.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.72%, accounting for 62.2%. The generic drug business is the cornerstone of the company. In 2018, entecavir dispersible tablets, the core product of “4+7”, won the bid and reduced the price by more than 90%, reducing the hospital's sales volume of more than 4 billion dollars to single digits. Since then, the company has continued to actively participate in national collection. Currently, more than 300 million generic drug types have been included in the scope of collection, and the collection risks have basically been clarified. In addition, the fifth batch of budesonide atomized inhalation suspensions in generic drugs did not win the bid. Currently, the price is about 1/3 of the original research, and it is expected that they will continue to be released in the future; flurbiprofen gel paste, limaprost, etc. are exclusive products of Beijing Tide. There is no collection pressure yet, and there is still great potential for growth; entecavir dispersible tablets are concentrated in the out-of-hospital market, and the volume of entecavir dispersible tablets will maintain a steady upward trend in the future.
The bank said that the company's generic drug product collection risks have been cleared, and innovative products have entered the performance harvest period. The bank expects that in 2024-2026, the company's revenue will be 317.30/369.61 billion yuan, +21/16/ 11% year on year, and net profit to mother will be 25.83/31.29/ 3.626 billion yuan, respectively, +11/21/ 16%. The corresponding PE was 19/15/13 times, respectively. The first coverage gave it a “recommended” rating.