The Zhitong Finance App learned that on April 15, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that the total sales volume for the first quarter of 2024 was 6.66 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9.8%; total automobile sales in March were 2.665,900 units, up 9.2% year on year, up 70.2% from the previous month.

In 2024, the Chinese automobile market is facing a continuing positive basic trend. The automobile market in February was greatly boosted by Spring Festival factors, achieving a high growth rate of 48% compared to the same period; in March, there was a big decline due to Spring Festival factors, but the overall performance was still good. The passenger car market continued to improve in 2024 due to the decline in real estate and the long sales period before the Spring Festival. Influenced by corporate strategies and exports, the recovery of heavy trucks in the Chinese automobile market is strong. The pattern of large groups has changed dramatically, and FAW, Dongfeng (600006.SH), and Changan have strong trends.

As national policy guidelines for the automobile industry increased, automobile consumption was further stabilized and expanded, and the car market grew strongly in January-March. Recently, domestic consumption and exports of passenger cars have contributed greatly, and the overall automobile market continues to strengthen. It is expected to reach 31.5 million units throughout the year, a record high.

The characteristics of passenger and passenger differentiation have been obvious in recent years. This year's market was affected by policies and Spring Festival factors, and the growth rate of passenger cars in January-March was relatively good. The commercial vehicle market only recovered after the Spring Festival, and the trend was relatively stable in January-March.

In 2023, the automobile market continued to open low and move high, with significant overdrafts at the end of the year. Sales declined significantly from month to month in February of this year, and rebounded significantly in March. The price war brought about a gradual recovery of the market downturn.

In 2019, total vehicle sales volume was 25.7687 million units, a cumulative decrease of 8.1%; in 2020, total car sales volume was 25.31 million units, a cumulative decrease of 1.9%; total car sales volume in 2021 was 26.27 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.8%, which finally achieved positive growth, higher than 2019 performance; total sales volume of 267.557 million units in 2022, cumulative growth rate of 1.9%; in 2023, total vehicle sales volume was 3.09 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12.4%.

This chart is a 2021 chart. Due to the low base, the trend in early 2021 showed high growth, mainly the cumulative effect of the low base in 2020. The 2021 chart compares 2019 data.

The trend in the car market was weak in 2021, and the trends of various groups were divided due to the differentiated market demand in the dominant sectors of trucks and passenger cars.

Compared with the 2021 chart above, some car companies performed strongly in 2022, and the growth rate of the industry was seriously divided. The epidemic in early 2022 put a lot of pressure on traditional car companies. In particular, the impact of new energy was compounded by the impact of the epidemic. The performance of large state-owned groups was divided. Guangzhou Automobile (601238.SH) and Chery performed well. Among them, Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors performed well. The performance of various companies in the North, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, is under pressure.

In early 2023, new energy sources drove the trend of the car market to diverge. The top three central enterprises are generally divided, and some state-owned enterprises are left behind. New energy companies such as BYD have performed very well; Chery and Tesla have performed relatively well this year. The performance of second-tier car companies is divided. Due to the continuous loss pressure of new and old kinetic energy conversion and new energy vehicles, the differentiation of own-brand SMEs is seriously sluggish.

The automobile group's lineup pattern changed completely in 2024. Due to the short time and seasonal sales schedule, FAW, Changan and Dongfeng performed well, and SAIC Motor is still in a sharp decline. Tesla, a new energy vehicle, has declined sharply across the board.

The car market was relatively divided in March. Consumption in the car market was strong before the holiday, and various trends diverged after the holiday. In March, some major manufacturers showed a big recovery compared to the previous month, and BYD strengthened compared to February.

In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers was narrowly multiplied by total sales volume of 255.323 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4%. The total sales volume for the first quarter of 2024 was 5.59 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.3%; in March, the total sales volume of Narrow Power was 2.189,500 units, up 10.2% year-on-year, and 68% month-on-month.

Major car companies were generally weak and autonomous in March, and joint ventures declined sharply in March. Geely led in February, and Chery led in March. The joint venture FAW-Volkswagen is stronger. The main passenger car manufacturers quickly split. Manufacturers that mainly focus on new energy vehicles performed well, and the differentiation in autonomous performance was particularly obvious.

For the full year of 2023, the manufacturer Sazheng retailed a total of 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; in January-March 2024, the total sales volume was 4.83 million units, up 13% year on year, and 6% year on year in March.

Sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 were 6.5 million units, an increase of 96% over the previous year. In 2023, the NEV passenger car market was 8.87 million, and the trend is growing steadily.

The increase in sales of 1.95 million from January to March 2024 was good, and manufacturers were more cautious.

The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in March was basically a sharp positive month-on-month increase compared to February, but some manufacturers were sluggish year over year due to price wars. The overall performance of the new energy market is average.

In 2023, sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of fuel were 16.66 million units, which is basically the same as the same period in 2022; in January-March 2024, sales of traditional passenger cars in the narrow sense of the word were 3.64 million units, up 2% year-on-year from the same period last year, and 1% year-on-year in March.

The continued decline in conventional passenger cars in the early stages brought significant market pressure. Recently, the trend of traditional cars has picked up relatively, but the price impact of drastic price cuts in new energy will continue to be reflected. It is hoped that traditional cars will also stabilize and resume growth.

The situation where conventional-power passenger car joint ventures are mainly changing. The market for Chery, Changan, Geely, and the top three joint ventures is still strong. FAW-Volkswagen is absolutely leading in joint ventures, yet the advantages of independent brands over joint ventures for fuel vehicles are not obvious, and joint ventures still have a strong fuel vehicle technology heritage.

The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market is low, with a 30% year-on-year decline in 2022, showing the characteristics of an ultra-low growth rate rare in previous years.

For the full year of 2023, the cumulative sales volume of generalized commercial vehicles was 4.297,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18.6%; in January-March 2024, the sales volume of generalized commercial vehicles was 1.07 million units, an increase of 7% over the previous year. The start of 2024 was mainly due to strong January base factors, followed by sluggish performance in March under a high base, and weak commercial vehicle growth in March 2024.

The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are BAIC Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile, and Sinotruk. Among them, Changan and FAW have performed relatively well, while Jiangling's performance was relatively stable. Among heavy trucks, China FAW and Sinotruk all performed well, and the trend of some second-tier companies is still under pressure.

For the full year of 2023, the cumulative sales volume of microcars by manufacturers was 882,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.3%; the total sales volume of microcars in the first quarter of 2024 was 161,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 2%; in March, the total sales volume of Microcars was 83,900 units, up 15.4% year on year, up 65.8% from the previous month.

The trend of Wuling was relatively strong in 2023, followed by drastic adjustments in February 2024. Sales of major manufacturers rebounded in March 2024, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is relatively strong.

For the full year of 2023, the total sales volume of trucks by manufacturers was 2,9273 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.8%; total truck sales in the first quarter of 2024 were 795,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 7%; total truck sales in March were 339,500 units, up 0.8% year on year, up 82.1% from the previous month.

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales volume of light trucks was 491,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 2%; in March, the sales volume of light trucks was 209,800 units, up 0.1% year-on-year, and 76.3% month-on-month.

The high growth in trucks in the early period was mainly affected by the elimination of the three national diesel vehicles. Strong measures were taken by various regions to eliminate the three countries, which led to a huge increase in replacement purchases. With a new round of trade-ins, there is still potential for the car market to grow.

Major light truck manufacturers are clearly divided in 2024. Xinyuan Auto and others surged compared to March last year, but Foton and Sinotruk increased slightly compared to March last year.

Changan Automobile and Xinyuan Automobile have upgraded from being strong microcard companies to strong companies in the light truck camp.

The cumulative sales volume for the full year of 2019 was 1,313,600 units, a cumulative decrease of 0.9%; cumulative sales of medium and heavy trucks in 2020 were 1.778 million units, a cumulative growth rate of 35%; cumulative sales of medium and heavy trucks in 2021 were 1.572,000 units, a cumulative decrease of 12%; the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy trucks in 2022 was 767,500 units, a cumulative decrease of 51%; cumulative manufacturer sales volume for the full year of 2023 was 1.0181,000 units, a cumulative growth rate of 32.7%.

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy trucks was 304,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 13.7%; in March, sales volume of medium and heavy trucks was 129,700 units, up 1.9% year-on-year, and 92.2% month-on-month.

The high growth in heavy trucks in the early period was mainly due to e-commerce logistics driving demand for road transportation. Coupled with the rapid growth of financial loans, consumer consumption under the influence of the epidemic, e-commerce trends further strengthened logistics transportation. At the same time, there were also comprehensive factors such as national three scrapping and investment drivers. Due to the high penetration of automobile finance, problems are gradually being revealed, and consumption pressure in the car market is high.

The main trend in 2024 is divided. Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile are stronger in exporting heavy trucks to Russia. FAW Heavy Truck and Dongfeng Heavy Truck are in an adjustment period after the Spring Festival. Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile are off to a strong start this year. FAW and Dongfeng, the leading heavy truck companies, still need to further strengthen product competition and market development. The gap between second-tier heavy trucks and major car companies is still huge.

The total sales volume of bus manufacturers in 2023 was 4881,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19.6%; cumulative total bus sales in the first quarter of 2024 were 113,900 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 13.9%; total bus sales in March were 53,000 units, up 17.7% year on year, up 106.6% from the previous month.

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales volume of light passenger vehicles was 100,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18%; in March, sales volume of light passenger vehicles was 43,400 units, up 12.1% year on year.

Light passenger companies basically had a sharp month-on-month decline in February. There was strong growth in March, such as Changan, etc., and other light passenger companies also performed very well month-on-month. Recently, the light passenger market has continued to change, and second-tier manufacturers have risen. Changan (000625.SZ) has had a strong trend in the past two years, followed by SAIC Chase and Jiangling (000550.SZ). SAIC Chase's export performance was strong.

For the full year of 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers was 91,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.9%; in the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales volume was 21,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 60.6%; in March, the sales volume of large and medium customers was 0.97 million units, up 52.2% year on year, up 100.5% from the previous month.

In the previous two years, the performance of large and medium passengers was strong, showing high growth over the previous year. The increase was mainly due to the subsidy rush for new energy buses, and it was also the result of local government promotion. Subsidies have subsided in the past two years, so large and medium-sized buses have declined significantly. Currently, local governments are short of money, and although the performance of bus models has increased in 2024, it is still very average.

In 2024, the large passenger market still relied mainly on new energy buses. With the withdrawal of the policy, bus overdrafts were more obvious, and the large and medium passenger market continued to fluctuate at a low level in 2024.

In March 2024, sales of Yangzhou Jinxing, Anhui Ankai, and Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ) increased relatively high year-on-year, while second-tier car companies such as BYD (002594.SZ) performed steadily in the large and medium passenger markets.