Guoxin Securities slightly adjusted the Alibaba-SW (09988) FY2024-FY2026 revenue forecast to 9390/10141/1093.3 billion yuan.
Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that it maintained the Alibaba-SW (09988) “buy” rating and slightly adjusted the FY2024-FY2026 revenue forecast to 9390/10141/1093.3 billion yuan, with an adjustment of -0.4%/-0.4%/-0.4%, which mainly reflects the continued contraction of non-core businesses such as Taotian's own operation and Dawen Entertainment; adjusted FY2024-FY2026 net profit forecast to 1584/1631/186.6 billion yuan, with an adjustment of -0.8%/-0.2%/- 0.2%, which mainly reflects continued investment in core businesses such as Taotian. The target price is HK$95-103. After the restructuring, Ali continued to invest in core business, reducing costs and increasing efficiency in non-core businesses.
The bank said that 1) Alibaba's 4QFY24 revenue is +6% year-on-year, and the adjusted EBITA profit margin is 11%: Looking at revenue, the bank expects Alibaba to achieve revenue of 260.3 billion yuan this quarter, +6% year-on-year, with a 2-year CAGR of about 4%. The bank expects revenue growth in the quarter to be basically the same year on year. The revenue growth rate for Taotian/ International Digital Commerce/Local Life/Cainiao/ Cloud Intelligence is expected to be 2%/35%/13%/21%/4%, respectively. In terms of profit, 4QFY24's adjusted EBITA profit margin was 11%, down 0.9 pct year on year, and the non-GAAP net interest rate was 12%, down 1.6 pct year on year. The bank predicts that the Group's adjusted EBITA profit margin is mainly due to increased investment in Taotian, International Digital Commerce, and Gaode businesses, a year-on-year decline in profit margins, and a total of about 1 billion yuan in one-time bonus expenses granted to employees after Cainiao suspended its listing, all of which were included in the March quarter.