There wouldn't be many who think China Shenhua Energy Company Limited's (HKG:1088) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.9x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, China Shenhua Energy's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like China Shenhua Energy's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 67% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 0.4% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we find it concerning that China Shenhua Energy is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that China Shenhua Energy currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Shenhua Energy you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.