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The Three-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on CITIC Offshore Helicopter (SZSE:000099) Shareholders as Stock Falls 3.8% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 13 20:02

It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For instance the CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000099) share price is 116% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! Also pleasing for shareholders was the 68% gain in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results, released recently - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Although CITIC Offshore Helicopter has shed CN¥465m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years of share price growth, CITIC Offshore Helicopter actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 5.0% per year.

So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 7.6% per year is viewed as evidence that CITIC Offshore Helicopter is growing. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:000099 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 14th 2024

We know that CITIC Offshore Helicopter has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on CITIC Offshore Helicopter

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of CITIC Offshore Helicopter, it has a TSR of 122% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that CITIC Offshore Helicopter has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 91% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 14% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC Offshore Helicopter better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CITIC Offshore Helicopter that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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