As you might know, Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688008) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Montage Technology missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥2.3b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.40, falling short by 2.9% and 7.5% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Montage Technology's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.09b in 2024. This would reflect a huge 79% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 196% to CN¥1.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥4.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.19 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥73.35, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Montage Technology, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥100.00 and the most bearish at CN¥60.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Montage Technology shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Montage Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 79% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 23% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Montage Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥73.35, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Montage Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Montage Technology that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.