While Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UAA) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$9.00 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$6.64. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Under Armour's current trading price of US$6.64 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at Under Armour's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What Is Under Armour Worth?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It's trading around 15% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Under Armour today, you'd be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company's true value is $7.79, then there isn't much room for the share price grow beyond what it's currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Under Armour's share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Under Armour look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -13% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn't appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Under Armour. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, UAA appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on UAA for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there's less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven't considered today, which can help gel your views on UAA should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here.
If you are no longer interested in Under Armour, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.