The Zhitong Finance App learned that Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose by more than 4%. As of press release, it had risen 4.12% to HK$8.85, with a turnover of HK$365.01 million.
According to the news, the main coke futures contract of major trading companies surged by more than 5% in the intraday period, and the main coking coal futures contract rose nearly 4%. Bosheng Futures pointed out that concerns about the supply of coal mines still exist, and the overall atmosphere of black has improved, leading to a low rebound in coking coal futures. Currently, the 5 refined coal of Ansha River Yimeng has been transferred to 1,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton over the previous month, equivalent to the warehouse receipt cost of 1,450 yuan/ton. On March 31, the “2024 Work Plan for Stable Coal Production and Supply in Shanxi Province” mentioned that in 2024, Shanxi's coal production will stabilize at around 1.3 billion tons. It is estimated that from March to December, Shanxi will still need to reduce production by 35 million tons over the same period last year.
In addition, Guotai Junan pointed out that through eight rounds of consecutive declines in coke prices at the beginning of the year (followed by coking coal prices), the steel industry's profit per ton of steel has recovered to an average of 200 yuan/ton in 2023, rebounding from losses across the industry to profit. Judging that in the context of profit recovery, the price momentum on the coke side is no longer strong; furthermore, coking companies have already lost money throughout the industry and carried out comprehensive production restrictions to raise prices. The price is expected to have basically reached the end. Considering that the supply and demand for coking coal is still tightening throughout the year, once there is a change on the supply side or the demand side, it may lead to a reversal in current fundamental factors, leading to a reversal in coking coal prices.