Despite an already strong run, Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 38% in the last year.
Although its price has surged higher, Kinetic Development Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.3x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 10x and even P/E's above 19x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, Kinetic Development Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For Kinetic Development Group?
Kinetic Development Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 22% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 155% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Comparing that to the market, which is only predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is stronger based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
With this information, we find it odd that Kinetic Development Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.
The Final Word
Kinetic Development Group's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Kinetic Development Group currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. At least price risks look to be very low if recent medium-term earnings trends continue, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Kinetic Development Group that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Kinetic Development Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.