The China Gingko Education Group Company Limited (HKG:1851) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 21% share price drop.
Even after such a large drop in price, China Gingko Education Group may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.5x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 10x and even P/E's higher than 19x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
China Gingko Education Group certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings growth might actually underperform the broader market in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
How Is China Gingko Education Group's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like China Gingko Education Group's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 74% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 774% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's peculiar that China Gingko Education Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance has exceeded its limits and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.
The Final Word
Having almost fallen off a cliff, China Gingko Education Group's share price has pulled its P/E way down as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that China Gingko Education Group currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. At least price risks look to be very low if recent medium-term earnings trends continue, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for China Gingko Education Group you should know about.
You might be able to find a better investment than China Gingko Education Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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