The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's China PV industry bidding database statistics, a total of about 21.37 GW of PV module tenders were announced in March 2024, up 85% from the previous month. After experiencing the Spring Festival holiday, the company actively carried out bidding activities, compounding that the weather gradually picked up, and the gradual commencement of distributed and centralized projects led to a steady increase in the number of tenders.

In 2024, the tender volume of PV modules in Q1 was about 51.5 GW, and N-type modules accounted for over 80% of tenders

According to statistics, the number of PV module tenders in Q1 in 2024 was about 51.5 GW, showing a downward trend. Among them, it is clear that the number of tenders for N-type modules reached 41.5 GW, accounting for 80.62%. Acceptance of N-type modules increased dramatically, and domestic and foreign product demand changed faster than expected.

HJT components are emerging, and demand for lightweight and flexible components has emerged. According to incomplete statistics, it is clear that the HJT tender project is about 3.4 GW in PV module tenders since 2023, and the HJT tender volume in Q1 in 2024 is expected to be released at an accelerated pace; currently, there is also some demand for lightweight modules and flexible modules in the market.

Figure: Domestic component monthly bidding capacity (MW) for 2023-2024

Double-sided components account for about 62%, and demand continues to rise

From the perspective of bidders, in March, CNNC's Xinhua Hydro and CNNC (Nanjing) tenders for a total of 10GW photovoltaic modules, followed by Huadian Group's first batch of 9GW PV module collection tenders in 2024; the 2024 Q1 Top 10 tenders accounted for 90% of the total tender volume.

The tender scale for components of 540W and above, 570W and above accounted for about 97%; in 2024, the tender scale for components of 540W and above was about 19GW (37%), the tender scale for components of 570W and above was about 31GW (60%), and 1.62 GW (3%) for components of 600W or above.

Double-sided modules accounted for 62% of tenders; in the 51.5GW module tenders, it was clear that the bid scale for double-sided modules reached 32GW, accounting for about 62%, of which the double-sided dual-glass tenders accounted for about 27% (13.8GW).

Figure: Single and double-sided scale of domestic component tenders, unit:%

The bid price range for P-type components has widened, and the internal price volume continues

In March, Zhongling Xinneng, Shenzhen Gas and the Three Gorges Group opened tenders for a total of 1.1 GW component collection projects. The bid price was between 0.795 yuan/W-0.929 yuan/W, and the average bid price was 0.841 yuan/W. Compared with February, the bid price range widened, and the average price continued to fall, mainly due to component companies adopting different sales strategies.

Figure: Q1 domestic P-type module bid price trend in 2024, unit: yuan/W

TopCon's average bid opening price continued to decline month-on-month, and leading companies are strongly willing to raise prices

In March, a total of about 9.3 GW N-type modules were collected and tendered. The bid price was between 0.839 yuan/W-1.003 yuan/W. The average bid price was 0.887 yuan/W, down 0.045 yuan/W from the February average price, and the price difference with PERC continued to fall month-on-month. Among them, on March 14, the Three Gorges Group opened a tender for the 2024 PV module framework centralized procurement (first batch) project. The price for N-type bids was 0.839 to 1.003 yuan/W, with an average price of 0.907 yuan/W. Judging from the pricing pace of the top 10 companies, leading companies are relatively willing to raise prices. Compared with the opening bid price of CNPC's 7GW module collection in February, many companies with sufficient orders placed high prices. The overall price and average price for the N-type bid segment were slightly higher than CNPC's previous bid opening price of around 0.903 yuan/watt.

Figure: 2024 Q1 domestic N-type Topcon module bid price trend, unit: yuan/W

The price of HJT components has dropped significantly, and market space needs to be opened up

Affected by the drop in raw material prices, the price of HJT components dropped from 1.804 yuan/W in March 2023 to 1.116 yuan/W at present, a decrease of 38%. With subsequent large-scale layout and technology optimization, there is still room for price decline.

The market space for HJT components has yet to be opened up, and companies that take the lead are expected to enjoy dividends. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 1.7 GWHJT component projects were opened in 2023-2024. The capacity of each project was below GW level. Most of them are used for experimental projects, and market space still needs to be further opened up. Currently, the production capacity of HJT components is relatively small, the market competition environment is good, and profit margins are relatively guaranteed.

Figure: 2024 Q1 domestic N-type component bid price trend, unit: yuan/W

In 2024, Q1 announced that the winning bid scale reached 91 GW, with first-tier companies accounting for 82% of the winning bid scale

Judging from the component bid results (including the finalists): in 2024 Q1, the winning bid results and the number of successful candidates reached 91 GW, including the approved bid size of 33.7 GW, and the size of the first successful candidate was 57.3 GW; in the component bid results, the four first-tier companies Jingao, Jingke, Longji, and Tianhe won the bid scale of 55.1 GW, accounting for 82%; TOP5 companies (601012.SH), Tianhe Solar (688599.SH), Jingke (688223.SH), and Tongwei () 600438.SH ), Artes (688472.SH)) won the bid scale of 59.8GW, accounting for 88.7%.

Tongwei, GCL, and Jingao have set bids on a large scale, 2.6 GW, 2.16 GW, and 1.56 GW respectively; the first successful candidates from Longji, Tianhe, and Jingke won most of the bids.

Figure: Scale of domestic PV module tenders and procurement in Q1 in 2024, unit: MW

Overall, the gradual commencement of distributed and centralized projects in March led to a steady increase in the number of tenders. In terms of price, the bid price range for P-type components has widened, and the average price continues to fall; the average price of TopCon tenders has continued to decline month-on-month, and leading companies are strongly willing to raise prices; the HJT module market space has yet to be opened up, and leading layout companies are expected to enjoy dividends.