The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the official WeChat account of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, according to China Automobile Association data (enterprise billing volume, non-terminal actual sales volume, same below), in March 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 4051 thousand vehicles, a sharp increase of 88% over February this year, and also achieved year-on-year growth, with an increase of 4%. Among these, the heavy truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold 115,800 units, a sharp increase of 94% over February and a slight increase of 0.3% year on year. The year-on-year increase was corrected last month (-23%), achieving both month-on-month and year-on-year increases.

As a traditional peak sales season, the heavy truck market usually sells over 100,000 vehicles in March. Looking at the trend chart of heavy truck sales and growth in March of the past five years, it can be seen that the heavy truck market in March of the last five years only failed to exceed 100,000 units, and achieved growth in March of three years. Of these, March 2021 surged 92% year-on-year, with sales reaching the highest sales volume of 230,000 units in history. In March 2022, there was an unexpected decline, with a decrease of 67%; the heavy truck market grew 50% year-on-year to 115,400 units in March of this year. The sales volume of 115,800 vehicles in March of this year increased slightly compared to 2023. The sales volume in March of the last two years was basically At the same level, it has been at a moderate level for the past five years. Therefore, in terms of numbers alone, the heavy truck market's performance in March of this year was neither good nor bad. It should be said that it was a normal “Golden 3” peak season performance, but in combination with the current bleak freight environment, this performance is actually very good.

In the first quarter of 2024, the heavy truck market sold a total of 272,700 vehicles, which was also at a moderate level in the past five years, up 13% from 241,300 vehicles in the same period last year, with a net increase of more than 30,000 units. The cumulative sales increase narrowed further from 25% after February. Judging from the monthly sales volume, the level of 115,800 vehicles in the heavy truck market in March will rank first in 2023 (the month with the highest sales volume in 2023 is March). From this perspective, the performance of the heavy truck market in March this year was also good, making people look forward to the future of the heavy truck market in the future.

The sales volume of the four companies exceeded 10,000, and Sinotruk (03808) /Jiefang (000800.SZ) /Dongfeng all broke 20,000 vehicles

Heavy truck (including chassis and tractor) market sales volume table for 2024/3 (unit)

As can be seen from the table above, the heavy truck market increased slightly by 0.3% year on year in March 2024, selling about 400 more vehicles than in March last year. In March, a total of 4 companies sold more than 10,000 vehicles in the heavy truck market. The number of companies selling 10,000 vehicles per month increased by 2 compared to February. Among them, Sinotruk, Jiefang, and Dongfeng all sold more than 20,000 units, reaching 301,000, 261,000, and 21,000 units respectively. In March, the total share of the top ten sales companies in the heavy truck market reached 96.7%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 89.78%. From January to March 2024, the total shares of the top five companies in the heavy truck industry reached 91.92%, 89.51% and 89.78% respectively. The top five companies in the industry continued to perform strongly in the first quarter of this year.

Judging from the growth rate, the top ten companies in the heavy truck market saw a year-on-year increase of 6 and 4 fewer companies in March, and the number of companies that achieved growth increased significantly compared to February: Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, Dayun, Xugong, Beiben and Hongyan increased 12%, 3%, 10%, 28%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The year-on-year increase of the companies that achieved growth all outperformed the “big market” of the heavy truck market in March; at the same time, 2 of the companies that experienced the decline reached double digits year-on-year in March.

Looking at the industry pattern, the top ten members of the heavy truck market in March 2024 were different from last month, and the rankings also changed: SAIC Hongyan returned to the top ten and ranked 10th in the monthly list; Jiefang rose 1 place from 3rd place in February to 2nd place in the monthly list. At the same time, more than one company's ranking declined from February, and was even temporarily squeezed out of the top ten.

Cumulative sales increased 13% in the first quarter, led by Jiefeng/Dongfeng/Beiben

Looking at cumulative sales, from January to March 2024, China's heavy truck market sold 272,700 vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13%. The cumulative increase was 12 percentage points narrower than after February (+25%). Looking specifically at the top ten companies with cumulative sales volume (which is also the top ten in March sales), most companies are in an upward range. Among them, the cumulative sales growth rate of Sinotruk, Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Beiben was higher than the overall market growth rate. After March, the cumulative sales volume of the above 4 companies increased 13%, 33%, 19%, and 28% year-on-year, respectively. Shaanxi Automobile, Dayun, XCMG, and Hongyan have now increased 3%, 0.2%, 12%, and 7%, respectively. At the same time, the cumulative sales decline of the two companies that have declined has now reached double digits.

Looking at the cumulative share, the top ten sales companies reached 97.11%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 90.39%. Among them, the top two companies, Sinotruk and Jiefang both had a cumulative share of more than 20%. Together, the two giants shared close to 50% of the heavy truck market share (49.82%) in the first quarter of this year; the share of companies after the top 5 was less than 1%. For companies ranked lower in the heavy truck industry, 2024 will be an extremely difficult year to catch up.

After March 2024, the top ten members in the heavy truck market remained consistent with the top ten members at the end of last year, and there were some changes in the ranking. Dongfeng rose from 4th place at the end of last year to 3rd place in the current industry, and XCMG rose from 8th place at the end of last year to 7th place in the current industry. Compared with the same period last year, the market share of enterprises such as Jiefang and Dongfeng increased markedly. The cumulative shares of the above two companies in January-March increased by 3.31 percentage points and 1.01 percentage points respectively compared to the same period last year. The market shares of Sinotruk and Beiben also increased slightly compared to the same period last year, while the market share of other companies declined to varying degrees compared to the same period last year.

epilogue

In March 2024, the heavy truck market handed over a “report card” of 115,800 vehicles sold, a sharp increase of 94% month-on-month and a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, which is a good peak season performance. The next month of April is still the traditional peak sales season for the heavy truck market. If the heavy truck market can maintain its March level, then the new round of growth, which began with a slight increase of 0.3%, will definitely not stop in April.