The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report stating that according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2024, the electricity consumption of the entire national society was 1531.5 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 10.95% over the previous year, and the previous value was 2.3%. Among them, the electricity consumption of primary, secondary, tertiary, and residents grew at a year-on-year rate of 11.11%, 9.73%, 15.66%, and 10.51%. The previous values were 6.20%, 2.88%, -0.16%, and 2.75%. Electricity consumption in the primary sector continues to grow thanks to the continuous increase in the level of electrification in rural areas. In the secondary and tertiary sectors, the development of new quality productivity represented by new energy sources and the Internet played a major supporting role in the new electricity consumption from January to February 2024.
Shen Wan Hongyuan said that with the continuous introduction of policies such as capacity electricity prices and market-based pricing of ancillary services, it is conducive to stabilizing the overall profitability of thermal power.
In terms of thermal power, it is difficult to see marginal improvements in thermal power generation volume and electricity prices over the same period. There is still room for decline in fuel costs and financial expenses. They are optimistic about Shenneng shares (600642.SH) and Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863.SH), which have high dividends.
In terms of hydropower, we are optimistic about the additional efficiency of the large water elevator cascade conversion in 2024 and the rise in electricity prices in the context of tight electricity supply and demand in the two provinces of Chuanyun. We recommend Changjiang Electric Power (600900.SH), SDIC Power (600886.SH), Sichuan Investment Energy (600674.SH), and Huaneng Hydropower (). 600025.SH
In terms of nuclear power, 10 new nuclear power units have been approved for two consecutive years. We are optimistic about the growth of nuclear power companies in the long term. It is recommended to focus on China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) and China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ,01816).
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
The growth rate of electricity consumption in the four major high-capacity industries continues to recover, and the rebound in real estate demand is driving the increase in electricity consumption for building materials
From January to February 2024, the country's industrial electricity consumption was 937.81 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year. The electricity consumption of the national manufacturing industry was 680.592 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.3% year on year. Among them, the total electricity consumption of the four major high-capacity industries increased 5.1% year on year. The year-on-year growth rates of the chemical, ferrous metal smelting, non-ferrous metal smelting and building materials industries in 2023 were 6.1%, 1.85%, 4.92%, and 9.94%, respectively. The building materials industry has benefited from the bottoming out of policies and cycles such as building insurance and renovation, and the restoration of the real estate industry has become the only industry among the four major high-capacity industries where the growth rate exceeds the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption in the country.
The installed volume of new energy continues to increase, and the installed volume of thermal power has slowed down
The new installed capacity of solar and wind energy reached a record 216 and 76 GW in 2023, accounting for 58.5% and 20.5% of the new installed capacity. The high increase in the installed capacity of new energy sources is, on the one hand, the rise in electricity demand and the demand for clean energy. On the other hand, many companies are increasing their installed capacity as component prices continue to fall and the 14th Five-Year Plan is nearing the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan to achieve the 14th Five-Year Energy Installed Capacity Plan of various companies. However, with the rapid rise in the installed capacity of new energy sources, the problem of unstable output is becoming more prominent. Therefore, thermal power is often bundled to guarantee peak and frequency modulation capabilities to ensure the stability of the power system. The installed capacity of thermal power plants in January-February 2024 and January-February 2023 was 5.1 and 5.7 million kilowatts, respectively. Thermal power plants are still growing, but the new scale is slowing down.
The number of hours used by new energy equipment declined year-on-year, and the high increase in installed capacity increased consumption pressure
From January to February 2024, the average number of hours used for wind power and solar energy equipment in the country was 373 and 168 hours, respectively. The previous values were 401 and 182 hours, all down from the previous year. Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that on the one hand, the decline in the number of hours used by new energy power generation is affected by natural conditions. At the same time, power grid lines are blocked due to high installed capacity, and insufficient flexibility in the power system has led to the problem of energy consumption becoming more prominent. The country's utilization rate of wind power in February was 93.7%, and the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation was 93.4%. For the first time, the utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation both fell below 95%. Considering the current accelerated growth of new energy installations, consumption pressure is likely to intensify further.
Risk warning: Coal prices fluctuate high, energy consumption falls short of expectations, and investment progress in key projects falls short of expectations.