The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that in March 2024, China's heavy truck sales volume was about 106,000 units, up 77.26% month-on-month and down 8.15%; China's logistics industry sentiment index was 51.50%, up 4.40 pcts month-on-month, and 4.00pct year-on-year decrease. The operating rate of tires rebounded month-on-month in March, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires increased markedly. In March 2024, the average monthly operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 69.94%, up 1.77pct year on year and 42.17pct month-on-month; the average monthly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 79.34%, up 5.87pct year-on-year, and 30.84pct month-on-month. In March 2024, downstream demand indicators such as heavy truck sales and the logistics industry sentiment index rebounded month-on-month, and the domestic tire operating rate remained high. Key targets: Sailun Tire (601058.SH), GM Co., Ltd. (601500.SH).

The main views of Cinda Securities are as follows:

US market: Demand in the replacement market is relatively stable, and the supporting market has clearly recovered.

(1) In the replacement market, sales of US auto parts and tire stores maintained a high year-on-year growth trend, and gasoline and diesel consumption remained relatively stable in March. In February 2024, retail sales of US auto parts and tire stores were US$10.481 billion, down 2.10% month-on-month and up 7.73% year-on-year. In March 2024, US gasoline consumption was 8.8953 million b/d, up 5.76% month-on-month, down 0.18%; diesel consumption was 3.815,800 barrels/day, up 3.08% month-on-month, down 0.51% year-on-year.

(2) In the supporting market, automotive supply chain problems have been mitigated, and US automobile sales have continued to recover. In March 2024, US car sales were 1.455 million units, up 15.50% month-on-month and 5.08% year-on-year.

US import market: In February 2024, the number of PCRs imported from the US was 16.8404 million, down 2.01% from the previous month, up 33.30% year on year; the number of TBRs imported from the US was 1.826,500, up 2.47% month on month, up 44.07% year on year.

The year-on-year surge in US imports in February 2024 is mainly due to US imports being disrupted by inventory removal during the same period in history; judging from the historical comparison, US imports in February 2024 were at a high level in the same period in history, and the number of TBRs imported from the US has basically shown a continuous month-on-month growth trend since August 2023, and US tire demand is still steady.

Chinese market: In March 2024, downstream demand indicators such as heavy truck sales and logistics industry sentiment index rebounded month-on-month, and domestic tire operating rates remained high.

In March 2024, China's heavy truck sales volume was about 106 million units, up 77.26% month on month, down 8.15% year on year; China's logistics industry sentiment index was 51.50%, up 4.40 pcts month on month, down 4.00 pct year on year. The operating rate of tires rebounded month-on-month in March, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires increased markedly. In March 2024, the average monthly operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 69.94%, up 1.77pct year on year and 42.17pct month-on-month; the average monthly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 79.34%, up 5.87pct year-on-year, and 30.84pct month-on-month.

Raw materials: The average price index for tire raw materials in March 2024 was 170.13, up 3.33% month-on-month and 0.67% year-on-year. Prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, etc. had already declined at the end of the month.

Among them, the average price of natural rubber was 13,840 yuan/ton, up 6.23%, up 17.76% year on year; the average price of styrene butadiene rubber was 13,256 yuan/ton, up 4.07% month on month, up 14.94% year on year; the average price of rebar was 3777 yuan/ton, down 6.18% month on month, down 13.24% year on year; and the average price of carbon black was 9087 yuan/ton, up 8.34% month on month and 10.85% year on year.

Risk Factors:

The risk of falling demand due to the macroeconomic downturn; the risk of rising raw material costs or falling product prices; the risk that economic expansion policies fall short of expectations.