Inflation Rises More Than Expected To 3.5% In March, Derails June Rate Cut Hopes
Inflation Rises More Than Expected To 3.5% In March, Derails June Rate Cut Hopes
Inflation in the United States surged again in March, surpassing economist expectations and disappointing investors who were anticipating imminent cuts in Federal Reserve interest rates.
美國3月份的通貨膨脹率再次飆升，超出了經濟學家的預期，令原本預計聯儲局即將下調利率的投資者感到失望。
The annual inflation rate calculated on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5% last month, according to Wednesday's data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
根據美國勞工統計局週三的數據，根據消費者價格指數（CPI）計算的年通貨膨脹率上個月升至3.5％。
March Inflation Report: Key Figures
3 月通脹報告：關鍵數據
- The annual CPI inflation rate surged from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March 2024, marking the second consecutive month of increase and exceeding expectations of a 3.4% surge.
- On a monthly basis, the CPI advanced at a pace of 0.4%, maintaining the momentum from the previous month and surpassing forecasts of 0.3%.
- The index for gasoline spiked by 6% on a monthly basis, accelerating from 3.8% in February. On an annual basis, gasoline costs were 2% lower, an improvement from the 3.9% drop in February.
- Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI inflation rate came in at 3.7% year-on-year, slightly easing from the 3.8% rate in February, in line with expectations.
- On a monthly basis, core CPI advanced at a pace of 0.4%, matching the 0.4% seen in February, but above estimates of 0.3%.
- 年度消費者價格指數通貨膨脹率從2月份的3.2％飆升至2024年3月的3.5％，標誌着連續第二個月上漲，超過了預期的3.4％的增長。
- 按月計算，消費者價格指數以0.4％的速度增長，保持了上個月的勢頭，超過了0.3％的預期。
- 汽油指數每月上漲6％，高於2月份的3.8％。按年計算，汽油成本下降了2％，比2月份的3.9％有所改善。
- 不包括食品和能源成本，核心消費者價格指數同比通脹率爲3.7％，略低於2月份的3.8％，符合預期。
- 按月計算，核心消費者價格指數上漲0.4％，與2月份的0.4％相當，但高於預期的0.3％。
| CPI Indicator | February 2024 | March 2024 | Expectations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation Rate (Y/Y) | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Headline Inflation Rate (M/M) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Core Inflation Rate (Y/Y) | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Core Inflation Rate (M/M) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 消費者價格指數指標 | 2024 年 2 月 | 2024 年 3 月 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 總體通貨膨脹率（Y/Y） | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 總體通貨膨脹率 (M/M) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 核心通貨膨脹率 (Y/Y) | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| 核心通貨膨脹率 (M/M) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Market Reactions
市場反應
Ahead of the inflation report, investors had priced in a 54% likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June.
在通貨膨脹報告發布之前，投資者認爲聯儲局在6月份降息的可能性爲54％。
The hotter-than-expected March inflation report may dampen these expectations further as policymakers are likely to lean toward keeping high interest rates for longer to counteract the renewed inflationary pressures.
3月份的通脹報告高於預期，可能會進一步抑制這些預期，因爲決策者可能傾向於在更長的時間內保持高利率，以抵消新的通貨膨脹壓力。
Minutes after the release, Treasury yields spiked, with the two-year Treasury note yield surging by 9 basis points to 4.82%, on track to close at its highest level since late November 2023.
發佈幾分鐘後，美國國債收益率飆升，兩年期美國國債收益率飆升9個點子至4.82％，有望收於2023年11月下旬以來的最高水平。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), strengthened 0.4%, backed by rising expectations of a delay in interest rate cuts.
景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）上漲了0.4％，這得益於對延遲降息的預期不斷上升。
Gold, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), fell 0.7%
通過SPDR黃金信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：GLD）監測的黃金下跌了0.7％
Futures on major U.S. indices traded lower during the premarket trading Wednesday, with tech underperforming the broader market. The Nasdaq 100 was 0.8% lower at 8:35 a.m. in New York.
週三盤前交易中，美國主要指數期貨走低，科技股表現遜於大盤。紐約上午8點35分，納斯達克100指數下跌0.8％。
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立即閱讀： 在3月份通脹報告發布之前，債券交易員對2024年聯儲局降息下了有史以來最大的賭注
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照片來自 Shutterstock。