The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies China Ruyi Holdings Limited (HKG:136) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does China Ruyi Holdings Carry?
As you can see below, China Ruyi Holdings had CN¥1.76b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥680.7m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥1.07b.
How Strong Is China Ruyi Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, China Ruyi Holdings had liabilities of CN¥3.42b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥2.22b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥680.7m as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.47b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥492.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Since publicly traded China Ruyi Holdings shares are worth a total of CN¥21.1b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
China Ruyi Holdings's net debt is only 1.3 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 159 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Although China Ruyi Holdings made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated CN¥796m in EBIT over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Ruyi Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, China Ruyi Holdings recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
On our analysis China Ruyi Holdings's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at converting EBIT to free cash flow as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Considering this range of data points, we think China Ruyi Holdings is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for China Ruyi Holdings you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.