The US continues to anticipate a slight shortage of global oil supply in 2024, which reinforces expectations of tightening markets.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised the global demand estimate by 480,000 b/d to 1029.1 million b/d, which is basically in line with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast of 103.2 million b/d.
When this forecast was released, the world's largest oil traders were increasingly optimistic about the market outlook for the second half of this year. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is close to $90 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions have intensified bullish sentiment, demand has rapidly exceeded expectations, and OPEC+ production cuts have limited global inventories.
However, as US crude oil production reaches record levels, global production is expected to increase to 1026.5 million b/d, leaving a small gap of 260,000 b/d in 2024. As the global market continues to fluctuate, these predictions may vary significantly from month to month.
Meanwhile, the agency also revised its historical consumption data for 2022 and 2023. Currently, global crude oil and fuel consumption in 2022 is expected to be about 800,000 b/d higher than previously calculated, and demand in 2023 has been raised by 960,000 b/d.