The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Securities released a 24-year Q1 outlook for the home appliance industry, pointing out that, driven by domestic and foreign sales resonance in the first quarter, the fundamentals of the home appliance industry may exceed expectations; and the “trade-in” policy expectations for home appliances are strong. In the context of the industry embracing the big cycle of renewal, potential stimulus flexibility can be expected; at the same time, the sector's lower valuation level and dividend rate advantage were added to maintain the home appliance sector's “stronger than the market” rating.
Continued recommendations: 1) high-quality high-dividend representatives, such as Baidian's leading Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home Appliance (600690.SH), Hisense Home Appliance (000921.SZ), Gree Electric (000651.SZ); 2) Strong alpha kitchen appliances with a steady increase in share and average price, Boss Electric (002508.SZ) and Vantage (002035.SZ); 3) brands that have gone overseas to reshape the global landscape. 600060.SH 688169.SH
The main views of Guolian Securities are as follows:
White Power: The economy in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and profits were stable and improving
Guolian Securities pointed out that in 2024Q1, white power exports continued the high trend since 23Q3, and the performance was better than expected. The leading macro export indicators showed positive performance in March, and the economy is expected to continue; domestic sales of air conditioners are growing by more than double digits, and the potential is strong. In terms of domestic retail sales, ice washing continues to grow in medium to high single digits, air conditioning is stable, the price system is basically stable, and there is little marginal change in the pattern. In terms of profit, although the 24Q1 copper price increased month-on-month, the main cost items fell year-on-year, and the leading endogenous cost reduction and efficiency continued to be realized. In summary, Baidian's main business grew steadily in the first quarter, and profitability continued to improve. Driven by flexible export sales, the overall business performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Black electricity: demand is relatively stable, focus on the pace of cost sharing
Guolian Securities pointed out that in 23, the domestic and international color TV economy recovered weakly, and the recovery trend is expected to continue. Against this backdrop, domestic sales of Q1 color TV are expected to increase, export sales are flat year on year, and overall demand is relatively stable; in terms of price, refer to retail monitoring and customs data, which may reflect a slight overall increase, or reflect continuous improvement in the product structure; although Q1 panel prices have increased year on year, changes in industry profitability need to focus more on observing the pace of corporate expenses. Overall, domestic leaders are expected to continue to seize global share based on sports marketing in '24, and their high-end share may further increase with products such as MiniLED.
Post-cycle: demand differentiation, split smoke stoves perform better
Guolian Securities pointed out that residential completion has continued to decline since the beginning of the year, but benefiting from the release of renewal demand, overall post-cycle demand from January to February '24 was still relatively stable. However, considering the low base for the same period from January to February last year, the growth rate is expected to weaken somewhat in March. Specifically, Aowei's total data shows that in January-February, retail sales of smokes/stoves were +7%/+9%/+1% respectively. Overall sales achieved steady growth against the backdrop of rising average prices and steady growth in sales; retail sales of dishwashers declined, but overall sales maintained a slight positive growth based on a steady increase in average prices; integrated stoves were under high economic pressure, sales continued to decline, and changes in product structure led to a decline in average price.
Emerging small electricity: sweepers are stable, and the number of floor scrubbers is increasing and the price is decreasing
Since the beginning of the year, the consumer boom has yet to recover, and there are differences in the product innovation cycle of different categories. It is expected that in Q1, sweepers will drop in the price band of all-purpose products, and sales are expected to grow in single digits, increase in volume and price. Floor scrubbers may continue to increase in sales volume and downward trend in average prices. At the same time, online camera sales have also grown. Demand for smart micro-connectivity is still under pressure. Looking specifically at companies, companies with a high share of export sales are expected to achieve relatively good Q1 performance; currently, domestic brands have outstanding product strength, and domestic brands have great potential for global expansion in the medium to long term.
Small kitchen appliances: domestic sales decline narrows, export sales drive growth
Since the beginning of the year, the online boom in small household appliances has picked up somewhat compared to 2023Q4. Referring to Aowei monitoring data, online sales of small kitchen appliances were -6% year-on-year in January-February '24, improving month-on-month in Q4 and 23; if Douyin channels are taken into account, online synthesis is expected to remain flat or grow slightly; by brand, Midea's performance is excellent, and Joyang/Mofei has improved significantly. Supor is stable, and the bear is under certain growth pressure; the offline economy did not change much from month to month, and continued to decline by large digits. At the export level, the industry's export sales performance was excellent in the first quarter under the influence of factors such as a low base during the same period, the recovery in overseas demand combined with early inventory replenishment.
Risk warning: 1) Domestic demand falls short of expectations; 2) Overseas demand is low; 3) Prices of raw materials have risen sharply; 4) Exchange rates have fluctuated greatly.