The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that from the supply side, the mining side is tightening, the increase in copper scrap is limited, and tight raw materials are limiting the production of electrolytic copper. From the demand side, traditional demand areas are resilient, and emerging demand areas continue to grow. The current global copper inventory level is at a historically low level against the background of an increase in tight supply and demand. It is expected that the copper price center will rise steadily in the medium to long term. Recommended attention: Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Jin Chengxin (603979.SH), Minmetals Resources (01208), Western Mining (). 601168.SH

Tianfeng Securities's main views are as follows:

Traditional areas of demand:

Electrolytic copper is mainly used in the fields of electricity/home appliances/transportation/construction, accounting for 48%/14%/10%/10% in 2022, respectively. The investment amount of the State Grid in 2023 was +5.3% year-on-year, and investment in recent years will remain high, underpinning copper demand; the expansion of air conditioning production in the home appliance sector has increased copper consumption, and there are still many favorable factors for subsequent exports; in the context of new energy vehicles replacing traditional vehicles in the transportation sector, traditional vehicle production growth is limited; construction real estate performance is strong and resilient, and copper demand is expected to be supported by a series of favorable policies.

Emerging demand areas:

In terms of emerging demand, wind power generation and new energy vehicles performed well. In 2023, PV installations increased dramatically, with domestic new installed capacity +151% compared to the same period. The high installed capacity growth rate drove a rapid increase in copper demand, accounting for 5.6%; wind power generation ushered in a turning point, and the sea breeze returned to high-speed construction, which provided good support for copper demand; the amount of copper used in bicycles for new energy vehicles was 3-4 times that of traditional vehicles. As NEV production and sales remain high, it will effectively complement copper demand. According to the Nonferrous Metals Industry Network forecast, in 2024, the amount of copper used for photovoltaics is expected to reach 840,000 tons, the amount of copper used for new wind power installations is expected to reach 250,000 tons, and the amount of copper used for new energy vehicles will reach 910,000 tons.

Supply and demand are increasing, and the copper price center is expected to rise steadily

Tianfeng Securities said that due to frequent incidents of short-term mining side disturbances on the supply side, output fell short of expectations, and low capital expenditure limited mine-side supply. Although many new production capacity was put into operation on the smelting side, considering the rapid decline in processing costs and limited increases in raw material side raw ore and copper scrap, it is expected that electrolytic copper output will be limited. On the demand side, traditional global demand is expected to recover, and demand for new energy sources is expected to continue to increase over the next few years. The current global copper inventory level is at a historically low level against the background of an increase in tight supply and demand. It is expected that the copper price center will rise steadily in the medium to long term.

Risk warning: Upstream raw materials fluctuate; downstream demand falls short of expectations; other material substitution risks; related companies' performance forecasts are only preliminary estimates, subject to annual report disclosure.