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What China Silver Group Limited's (HKG:815) 230% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 8 19:00

China Silver Group Limited (HKG:815) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 230% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 17% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China Silver Group's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Metals and Mining industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:815 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 8th 2024

What Does China Silver Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times have been quite advantageous for China Silver Group as its revenue has been rising very briskly. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for China Silver Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, China Silver Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 71% last year. Revenue has also lifted 17% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 7.9% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's curious that China Silver Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On China Silver Group's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now China Silver Group's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of China Silver Group revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Silver Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Silver Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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