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Sanbase Corporation Limited's (HKG:8501) 44% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 8 18:26

Sanbase Corporation Limited (HKG:8501) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 44% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 33% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Sanbase's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:8501 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 8th 2024

How Sanbase Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Sanbase has been doing very well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Sanbase will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Sanbase?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Sanbase's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 32% gain to the company's top line. Still, revenue has fallen 4.3% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 9.2% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sanbase is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Sanbase's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at Sanbase revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Sanbase (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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