To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Although, when we looked at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (HKG:2689), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings):
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.0037 = CN¥366m ÷ (CN¥129b - CN¥30b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
Therefore, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has an ROCE of 0.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Forestry industry average of 7.9%.
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 14%, but since then they've fallen to 0.4%. However it looks like Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
The Bottom Line
In summary, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. Since the stock has declined 48% over the last five years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.
If you'd like to know about the risks facing Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings), we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.