Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 23% over the past week following Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPWH) latest full-year results. Revenue hit US$1.3b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.77 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is for revenues of US$1.20b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 6.6% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 92% to US$0.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.27b and losses of US$0.03 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target fell 7.3% to US$4.75, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.