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中泰证券:颐海国际(01579)关联方持续修复,第三方增长承压

Zhongtai Securities: Yihai International (01579) related parties continue to recover, third party growth is under pressure

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 6 19:44

In the future, as the company actively launches cost-effective products and strengthens third-party B-side customers, it is expected to achieve healthy growth.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in 2023, Yihai International achieved main revenue of 6.148 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; realized net profit of 853 million yuan, an increase of 14.9% over the previous year. Among them, 2023H2 achieved main revenue of 3,531 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year on year; realized net profit to mother was 495 million yuan, an increase of 3.3% year on year. According to a review by Zhongtai Securities, the company's affiliates achieved strong restorative revenue growth with the liberalization of epidemic control and demand for catering picked up. Third-party demand is under pressure due to weak demand and declining consumption. In particular, convenient fast food has declined significantly. In the future, as the company actively launches cost-effective products and strengthens third-party B-side customers, it is expected to achieve healthy growth. According to the company's annual report and fine-tuned profit forecast, the company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 70.34, 78.41, and 8.582 billion yuan (before 2024-2025 were 72.91 billion yuan, 8.125 billion yuan), net profit attributable to mother was 9.94 billion yuan, 11.05 billion yuan, and 1,111 billion yuan respectively (the value before 2024-2025 was 1,013 billion yuan and 1,160 billion yuan), and EPS was 0.96, 1.07, and 1.17 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 14.4, 12.9, and 11.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Specifically, the United Nations has continued to recover, which is convenient for the decline in fast food to narrow. By product and channel, 2023H2 hot pot seasoning achieved revenue of 2,438 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the previous year. Among them, related parties and third parties achieved revenue of 10.60 billion yuan and 1,378 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 34.5% and -5.2%, respectively. The increase in related party hot pot condiments mainly benefited from the return to normal in the economic and social environment, leading to an increase in offline consumer demand, leading to an increase in sales to related party stores or restaurants; the decline in third-party hot pot condiments was mainly due to the rapid growth rate of sales of new small pieces of butter hot pot seasoning in the industry in 2023. This new product squeezed out the market share of the company's existing products, and the company's related small pieces of butter hot pot base went on sale late. 2023H2 Chinese compound seasoning revenue was 256 million yuan, up 13.3% year on year. Among them, related parties and third parties achieved revenue of 0.10 million yuan and 246 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 81.9% and 11.6%, respectively. Related party Chinese style compound growth is mainly due to new product launches and increased product categories; third party Chinese style compound growth is mainly due to diversification of the company's product flavors and promotion of new products. 2023H2 convenient fast food revenue was 814 million yuan, down 16.3% year on year, narrowing from the 36.1% decline in 2023H1. Among them, related parties and third parties achieved revenue of 0.54 billion yuan and 760 million yuan respectively in the second half of the year, with year-on-year increases of 45.8% and -18.8%, respectively. The decline in convenient fast food by third parties is mainly due to the decline in demand for self-heating hot pot due to diversification of consumer demand due to the return to normal economic and social conditions, and the slow launch of the company's new products.

Furthermore, companies with declining costs pursue high cost performance, and the overall profitability of 2023H2 is still improving. 2023H2's gross margin was 32.4%, an increase of 0.9 pct over the previous year, mainly benefiting from lower costs and structural improvements. Among them, the gross margin of hot pot seasoning decreased by 1.2 pcts in the second half of the year, and the average price and unit cost increased by -9.8% and -8.1% respectively; the gross margin of Chinese compound formula decreased by 0.3 pcts, and the average price and unit cost increased by -12.4% and -11.9% respectively; the gross margin of convenient fast food increased by 4.5 pcts, and the average price and unit cost increased by -15.5% and -20.2%, respectively. Benefiting from reduced costs and improved efficiency, the unit cost of all categories of 2023H2 decreased. At the same time, the company actively caters to consumer demands for high cost performance and reduced unit prices to gain market share. 2023H2's sales and management expense ratios were +0.3 and +0.9 pcts to 9.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and net profit margin increased 0.2 pcts to 14.0% year over year.

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